[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for the "NC-01 House Election Winner" market. Considering the minimal volume ($16+), assess the liquidity depth and bid-ask spread. Synthesize this with fundamental updates on incumbent Don Davis's campaign status and any new NC redistricting litigation to determine if the current market price deviates from the district's true fundamental lean.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for the "NC-01 House Election Winner" market. Considering the minimal volume ($16+), assess the liquidity depth and bid-ask spread. Synthesize this with fundamental updates on incumbent Don Davis's campaign status and any new NC redistricting litigation to determine if the current market price deviates from the district's true fundamental lean.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Ratings Comparison: Search for the most recent 2026 House race ratings from authoritative sources like The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or Inside Elections specifically for North Carolina's 1st District. Compare the district's projected competitiveness (e.g., "Toss-up" vs. "Lean Democrat") with the current Polymarket odds to identify any mispricing caused by lack of liquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Ratings Comparison: Search for the most recent 2026 House race ratings from authoritative sources like The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or Inside Elections specifically for North Carolina's 1st District. Compare the district's projected competitiveness (e.g., "Toss-up" vs. "Lean Democrat") with the current Polymarket odds to identify any mispricing caused by lack of liquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Low Liquidity] "Stink Bid" Strategy: Since the total trading volume is extremely low (~$16), market orders will suffer huge slippage. Formulate a "Stink Bid" strategy: calculate a deeply discounted limit order price significantly below fair value, aiming to place 'Set and Forget' orders to capture potential panic selling or fat-finger errors over the long duration before the November election.

AI-powered analysis for: [Low Liquidity] "Stink Bid" Strategy: Since the total trading volume is extremely low (~$16), market orders will suffer huge slippage. Formulate a "Stink Bid" strategy: calculate a deeply discounted limit order price significantly below fair value, aiming to place 'Set and Forget' orders to capture potential panic selling or fat-finger errors over the long duration before the November election.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

NC-01 House Election Winner

Politics|$282 Vol|

185 days 3 hrs

NC-01 House Election Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.27 19:07

Top Undervalued

+4.5¢

Democratic Party(Yes)

+1¢

Republican Party(No)

NC-01 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +4.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

NC-01 is currently held by Democratic incumbent Don Davis, who successfully defended his seat in 202...

🔓 Log in to see more

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Democratic Party

YesNo

48.5¢

51.5¢

53¢

47¢

+4.5¢

0¢

Republican Party

YesNo

48¢

52¢

47¢

53¢

0¢

+1¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 24, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the Yes price of the Republican Party plummeted from 48c to 37c before quickly rebounding to 48c, while the Democratic Party's price correspondingly surged from 52c to 64c before falling back to 47.5c. This was likely due to short-term illiquidity or an overreaction to unconfirmed polling data, which was subsequently corrected by arbitrageurs. April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the Republican Party plummeted from 52.5c to 38c before rebounding to 50.5c, likely due to a short-term liquidity shock or an overreaction to unconfirmed polling rumors. March 5, 2026, the price of the Republican Party surged from 42.5c to 57c, while the Democratic Party remained flat at 42c throughout the day. This dramatic volatility of over 14 cents in a single day suggests a significant influx of pro-GOP capital, rapidly correcting a potential mispricing or reacting to undisclosed internal polling data.