[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event and, considering the low volume ($1250), analyze the bid-ask spread depth. Combine this with the historical background of NC-05 as a Republican stronghold to assess if current odds reflect pricing inefficiencies or arbitrage opportunities due to illiquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event and, considering the low volume ($1250), analyze the bid-ask spread depth. Combine this with the historical background of NC-05 as a Republican stronghold to assess if current odds reflect pricing inefficiencies or arbitrage opportunities due to illiquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Niche Market] District Partisan Lean & Redistricting Risk Verification: Search for the latest Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) and margin of victory in the last two elections for NC-05 to verify its status as a 'safe seat'. Also, check for any ongoing litigation regarding North Carolina district redistricting for the 2026 cycle, which could fundamentally alter the district's demographics.

AI-powered analysis for: [Niche Market] District Partisan Lean & Redistricting Risk Verification: Search for the latest Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) and margin of victory in the last two elections for NC-05 to verify its status as a 'safe seat'. Also, check for any ongoing litigation regarding North Carolina district redistricting for the 2026 cycle, which could fundamentally alter the district's demographics.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital Calculation: Given that this market resolves in November 2026, calculate the annualized percentage yield (APY) of betting on the high-probability 'Republican' outcome at current odds. Compare this against risk-free rates (e.g., US Treasuries or DeFi stablecoin yields) to determine if locking up capital for this duration is economically justified.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital Calculation: Given that this market resolves in November 2026, calculate the annualized percentage yield (APY) of betting on the high-probability 'Republican' outcome at current odds. Compare this against risk-free rates (e.g., US Treasuries or DeFi stablecoin yields) to determine if locking up capital for this duration is economically justified.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

NC-05 House Election Winner

Politics|$28.5k Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

NC-05 House Election Winner - AI Found +13¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.30 22:57

Top Undervalued

+13¢

Republican Party(Yes)

+5.6¢

Democratic Party(No)

NC-05 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +13¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

NC-05 is one of the most solid Republican districts in North Carolina (R+13), with incumbent Republi...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican Party

YesNo

85¢

15¢

98¢

2¢

+13¢

0¢

Democratic Party

YesNo

7.65¢

92.35¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+5.6¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the Republican Party's price crashed from 85c to 45c, then quickly recovered to 81c the next day. This was likely caused by a 'fat finger' trade or irrational selling due to low market liquidity, as the district's fundamentals remained unchanged. March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the price of Democratic Party spiked from 0.9c to 11.35c, before correcting back to 5.95c on March 14, likely caused by low liquidity 'fat finger' trades or irrational speculation, as there were no fundamental shifts in this deep-red district to favor Democrats.