Sports|$13.6k Vol|
19 days 7 hrsNCAA Tournament: Number of Rothstein “This is March” tweets - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
81+
YesNo
61–70
YesNo
51–60
YesNo
≤ 40
YesNo
71–80
YesNo
41–50
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 17:07 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Jon Rothstein consistently tweets 'This is March' daily (approx. 38 times over the period), plus frequent reactions to upsets and buzzer-beaters (approx. 15-30 times). The total is most likely to fall in the 51-70 range. Given the implied probability sum > 100%, buying 'Yes' on any option is negative EV.
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Rule Risk
There is noticeable ambiguity due to copy-pasted rules that seem designed for single-word counts (e.g., the 'compound word' clause citing 'marchmadness'), which is confusing when applied to the specific phrase 'This is March'. Additionally, the reliance on X's platform mechanics (reposts, quote tweets) and the specific exclusion of deleted tweets creates verification risks, especially since the account owner has full control over the output.
Exotics
This is a classic novelty market focusing on the social media behavior of a specific sports journalist. While the phrase 'This is March' is a well-known meme in college basketball circles, the market is highly niche and trivial compared to standard political or economic events.
Divergence
The sum of implied probabilities is ~280%, grossly violating probability axioms. This divergence is due to illiquidity and stale AMM pricing rather than opinion differences.
