All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Utah State
YesNo
LIU
YesNo
TCU
YesNo
Siena
YesNo
Michigan
YesNo
UConn
YesNo
Wisconsin
YesNo
Houston
YesNo
Florida
YesNo
Arizona
YesNo
Duke
YesNo
Miami (Ohio)
YesNo
Akron
YesNo
Miami (FL)
YesNo
Kennesaw State
YesNo
Texas
YesNo
Hofstra
YesNo
Vanderbilt
YesNo
Penn
YesNo
Iowa State
YesNo
Furman
YesNo
St. John’s
YesNo
Villanova
YesNo
Sam Houston
YesNo
Southern
YesNo
Oklahoma
YesNo
Idaho
YesNo
Hawaii
YesNo
Tennessee State
YesNo
Arkansas
YesNo
Wright State
YesNo
Georgia
YesNo
Prairie View A&M
YesNo
UCF
YesNo
Kansas
YesNo
Virginia
YesNo
Texas Tech
YesNo
VCU
YesNo
Howard
YesNo
Kentucky
YesNo
South Florida
YesNo
Saint Louis
YesNo
UMBC
YesNo
Cal Baptist
YesNo
Northern Iowa
YesNo
North Carolina
YesNo
Queens Univerity
YesNo
Clemson
YesNo
North Dakota State
YesNo
SMU
YesNo
Troy
YesNo
Illinois
YesNo
UCLA
YesNo
Tennessee
YesNo
Missouri
YesNo
Saint Mary’s
YesNo
Louisville
YesNo
UC Irvine
YesNo
Texas A&M
YesNo
Iowa
YesNo
McNeese
YesNo
Michigan State
YesNo
Santa Clara
YesNo
High Point
YesNo
Gonzaga
YesNo
Utah Valley
YesNo
Lehigh
YesNo
Nebraska
YesNo
Yale
YesNo
NC State
YesNo
Alabama
YesNo
BYU
YesNo
Ohio State
YesNo
Purdue
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 03:29 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed on March 15. Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and Florida are the No. 1 seeds. Historically, No. 1 seeds have an 80%-85% probability of advancing to the Sweet 16 (requiring wins against a #16 seed and an #8/9 seed). Duke, as the overall No. 1 seed, faces #16 Siena followed by TCU or Ohio State, warranting a fair value above 80c. Utah State, listed as the #8 seed in the West, faces a statistical ceiling; even if they defeat Wisconsin in Round 1, they would likely face #1 Arizona in Round 2. Their true probability of advancing is likely under 10%, making the current price of 51c significantly overvalued. The market reflects massive inefficiency, with #16 seeds like Siena priced at 50c despite having a near-zero historical probability of reaching the Sweet 16.
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Movers
March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026: Duke's price moved from 50c (default) to 67c after the NCAA Selection Sunday reveal confirmed them as the No. 1 overall seed with a favorable path in the East Region.
March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026: Utah State's price sits anomalously high at 51c despite being confirmed as an #8 seed. This likely reflects illiquidity or irrational fan sentiment, as their path requires upsetting #1 Arizona in the second round, contradicting the grim statistical reality.
Divergence
Extreme divergence exists. The market price (likely due to illiquidity) implies a 51% chance for Utah State (an #8 seed) to reach the Sweet 16, whereas mainstream analytics (KenPom, Bracket Matrix) would place this probability below 15%. Simultaneously, #16 seeds like Siena are priced at 50% implied probability against a real-world probability of near 0%. Conversely, #1 seeds like Michigan and Arizona are undervalued at 50%, while their statistical probability exceeds 80%.
