Recent weather forecasts indicate that Chicago will experience colder air on Friday, March 27, with ...

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '40-41°F' dropped from 29.5c to 18.5c and rebounded to 20.5c due to fluctuations in forecast models regarding the exact timing and intensity of the cold air. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '44-45°F' plunged from 25c to 3.5c before recovering to 13.65c, reflecting shifting expectations regarding the cold front's arrival and the residual impact of a Thursday midnight high. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '52°F or higher' plummeted from 18c to 2.05c as weather models confirmed that Friday will be under the control of a cold air mass all day, eliminating the possibility of extreme highs.

According to the resolution source Wunderground's latest forecast, the high temperature for Miami In...

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the '82-83°F' option rebounded from 26.5c to 41.5c, as traders anticipate daytime heating might push the actual airport recorded temperature slightly above the 81°F forecast. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, as the forecast window narrowed, extreme outcomes became less likely, causing '84-85°F' to drop from 27.5c to 12c, and '78-79°F' to fall from 26.5c to under 4c. March 22, 2026, 10:15 - 12:25, prices for '71°F or below' and '90°F or higher' spiked momentarily to 50c before crashing back to under 1c. This was likely due to a momentary liquidity void or a fat-finger trade error.

There is a slight divergence. The official resolution source (Wunderground) explicitly forecasts a high of 81°F, which falls perfectly into the 80-81°F bin. However, the prediction market places 82-83°F as the favorite at 41.5%. This indicates that traders are actively betting on the airport station's actual recording to overshoot the standard meteorological forecast.

According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the high temperature for Sao Paulo-Guarulhos Airpo...

This is a typical weather prediction market. While not as universally common as 'will it rain tomorrow', it is not unfamiliar to those interested in regional weather derivatives or climate. It is more niche than mainstream political/financial forecasting but belongs to a mature category.

March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the prices for '30°C' and '29°C' surged significantly (from 17.5c to peaks of 39c and 36.5c, respectively), as weather models converged on moderately hot temperature expectations for the day. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '32°C or higher' collapsed from 50c to 2.5c, as updated forecasts ruled out the possibility of extreme heat closer to the target date.

Synthesizing the latest meteorological data, Wunderground (the resolution source) shows a warming tr...

March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of the 24°C option crashed from 17c to 6.5c. The reason is that as the date approached, meteorological forecasts converged tightly around the 21-22°C range, making a high of 24°C (~75°F) significantly less likely.

With less than 1 day to resolution, the Yes price for '66°F or higher' has surged to 0.80 (80c), ind...

From March 23, 2026 to March 25, 2026, the price of '66°F or higher' surged from 24.5c to 82.5c. This occurred because, as the date approached, weather models and forecasts highly consistently confirmed that NYC would be in the pre-frontal warm sector, with strong southwest winds leading to a significant temperature rise at LGA. From March 22, 2026 to March 23, 2026, the price of '66°F or higher' surged from 12c to 40c, while '56-57°F' plummeted from 27c to 3c. The reason is that weather models (such as GFS/ECMWF) updated the timing of the cold front, confirming that March 26 will be in the pre-frontal warm sector with warming southwest winds, causing the high-temperature forecast to be revised sharply upward from the 50s to the 60s.