Moderate risk exists. The market relies on a third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than native X data. The main trap is the definition of 'replies': standard replies are excluded, but main-feed replies count. Deleted posts must survive for ~5 minutes to be captured. Traders relying on manual observation may face discrepancies.

Highly exotic. The general public rarely cares about or predicts the exact number of tweets a specific person (even Elon Musk) posts in a given week. This is a classic novelty/degen bet catering to a niche crypto community.

May 8, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option surged from 3.65c to 27.45c, and the 140-159 option plummeted from a recent high of 41.5c to 10.5c. This occurred because Musk's latest tweet volume was even lower than expected, causing the market to revise the estimated total downward, with capital quickly retreating from brackets above 140 and flowing into the lower 100-119 bracket. May 8, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option surged from 13.2c to 60.95c, and the 160-179 option plummeted from 28.5c to 2.25c. This occurred because Musk's actual tweet volume consistently trended lower; as the expiration approached, uncertainty dropped sharply, leading capital to concentrate heavily in the core 120-139 range. May 7, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option climbed from 21.5c to 41.5c (then dropped), the 120-139 option jumped from 9.85c to 35.25c, while the 160-179 option dropped from 23.5c to 13.5c. This occurred because Musk's actual tweet frequency remained consistently low, and with less than three days left, decreasing uncertainty drove capital to accelerate consolidation into the core 120-159 range. May 6, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option surged from 21.5c to 39.5c, the 120-139 option jumped from 14.1c to 32.3c, and the 100-119 option rose from 6.85c to 11.2c, while the 180-199 option plummeted from 14.5c to 4.5c. This happened because Musk's actual tweet frequency remained consistently low, and decreasing uncertainty as time runs out drove market capital to consolidate into these lower-frequency core brackets, abandoning higher ones. May 5, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option surged from 13.5c to 29.5c, and the 120-139 option jumped from 4.15c to 21.15c. This occurred because Musk's actual tweet volume over the first half of the tracking period remained consistently low, prompting the market to heavily upgrade the probability of lower frequency bands. May 5, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option climbed from 12.5c to 25.5c, and the 120-139 option surged from 4.15c to 15.5c before settling near 13.05c; simultaneously, the 180-199 option fell from 20.5c to 15.5c. This was caused by initial tracking data showing a lower-than-expected tweet frequency, leading the market to sharply lower its target range and consolidate around lower frequencies. May 2, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 160-179 option surged from 9c to 20.5c, and the 180-199 option jumped from 9.5c to 20.5c. This is because, as time progressed, market expectations increasingly consolidated around this range, which best aligned with Musk's recent tweeting frequency.

The main risk lies in the heavy reliance on a custom third-party tracker (xtracker). If the Mayor deletes a post within 5 minutes, it might be missed, leading to disputes. Additionally, counting 'replies recorded on the main feed' slightly contradicts user intuition and could cause conflicts if the tracker fails and manual counting is required.

Predicting the exact number of tweets by a specific local politician in a random week is a classic exotic and novelty market. Aside from degen prediction market participants, the general public would never organically think about or track such trivial data.

May 5, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of the '20-39' option temporarily dipped to 44.5c on May 6 before quickly rebounding and stabilizing in the 94c-97c range. This was likely due to short-term tracker data delays or minor fluctuations in the posting rhythm that triggered brief market repositioning, though subsequent data confirmed the overarching trend. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the '20-39' bucket skyrocketed from 25c to around 79.5c, while the '40-59' and '<20' options plummeted from 26c and 25c to 14.5c and 6c, respectively. This occurred because actual posting data heavily skewed toward a lower posting frequency, prompting a rapid market correction from initial flat distribution assumptions.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts a specific politician makes within a random week is a highly niche, novelty market with entertainment value, falling outside typical news or macro events.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the '120-139' option plummeted from 44.0c to 5.0c, as post volume quickly rebounded after a brief slowdown, drastically reducing the likelihood of landing in this lower tier. May 7, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the '140-159' option steadily climbed from 21.5c to 43.5c, and '160-179' rose from 15.4c to 30.5c, as the tracking trajectory solidified these ranges as the most probable outcomes. May 6, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the '200+' option plummeted from 34.5c to 8.1c. The reason is that as more than half of the tracking time elapsed, actual posting speed stabilized, ruling out extreme high volumes. May 5, 2026 - May 8, 2026, multiple options saw drastic movements exceeding 10c. For instance, '140-159' surged from 13.5c to 30.5c, while '160-179' plummeted from 46.6c to 25.7c. The market continuously recalibrated expectations based on actual posting rates. May 2, 2026 - May 5, 2026, multiple options dropped over 10c. Initial extreme inefficient pricing converged toward a rational sum as liquidity improved.

The rules exclude normal replies but state that replies recorded on the main feed by the tracker (xtracker) will count, as will deleted posts if they remain for ~5 minutes. This technical reliance on a specific tracking tool creates a moderate risk of discrepancy compared to direct manual observation on X.

Predicting the exact number of posts from a government social media account within a specific week is a very niche and novel topic that falls far outside the general public's normal sphere of interest.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the YES price for 180-199 surged from 43c to 77.5c, while 160-179 plummeted from 38c to 7.5c. This is because with less than 2 days until expiration, the consistent high-frequency posting data from the White House account has given the market extremely high confidence that the final count will fall in the 180-199 range. May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the YES price for 180-199 surged from 19.5c to a peak of 58c (before settling at 45.5c), while 160-179 dropped from 55.5c to 31c (then recovering to 40c). This is because as expiration nears, the actual tracked post count is trending higher than previously expected, shifting probabilities toward the 180-199 bracket. May 8, 2026, the YES price for 140-159 plummeted from 35.5c to 6.5c, 180-199 rose from 24c to 45c, and 200+ dropped from 14.95c to 6.45c. This is because participants adjusted expectations based on the latest post tracker data, causing extreme mispricings to collapse and redistribute. May 5, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the 160-179 option surged from 28c to a peak of 62.5c, 140-159 bounced to 34.5c after dropping to 19.5c, and the 200+ option spiked from 4c to 20c. This is due to a lack of market liquidity and irrational capital placing chaotic bets across high-frequency brackets, causing a severe premium in aggregate prices. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the prices of all low-probability high-frequency posting options saw varied movements. Notably, the Yes price for 140-159 fell from 48c to 37c, and 100-119 fell from 48c to 29.5c. This is likely due to the market initially being in an extremely illiquid and randomly priced state, followed by a slight regression towards reality.

The market relies heavily on a specific tracker (xtracker) and has nuance regarding which replies count as 'main feed' posts. Furthermore, deleted posts count if they survive for ~5 minutes, complicating independent verification and introducing tracker-reliability risks.

Predicting the exact number of times a specific senator tweets in a random week is an extremely obscure novelty market. No one thinks about this outside of niche prediction market participants.

May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the 120-139 option price surged from 21c to 55c, while the 100-119 option plummeted from 41c to 6c, as Cruz's actual posting velocity accelerated, causing the market to rapidly adjust the expected final count range. May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the 100-119 option price fluctuated from 28.5c to 41c, and the 120-139 option rose from 31c to 43c, as the market adjusted expectations for the most likely ranges near expiration amid poor liquidity. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of the 160-179 option fluctuated wildly from 6c to 34.5c and back to 19c, as extremely low market liquidity allowed small buy orders to pump the price. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the 140-159 option dropped significantly from 48.5c to 25c, and later down to 5.5c, due to massive corrections caused by illiquidity. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option surged from 20.5c to 42c, and the 140-159 option surged from 18c to 35c, driven by severe illiquidity where small trades caused massive price swings. May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the 80-99 option price spiked from 27c to 42.5c, then fell back to 22c on the 5th, due to price jumps caused by a lack of liquidity.