NE-02 Republican Primary Winner
Politics|$31.9k Vol|
time8 days 4 hrs

NE-02 Republican Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 10:59
Top Undervalued
+2.4¢
Brinker Harding(Yes)
+0.8¢
Dan Frei(No)
+0.5¢
Brett Lindstrom(No)

NE-02 Republican Primary Winner AI analysis: • +2.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
As of early May 2026, the Republican primary landscape for NE-02 is completely settled. With less th...
🔓 Log in to see more

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

View More
Highest temperature in Singapore on May 4?
Weather|$55.3k Vol|
time16 hrs 31 mins

Highest temperature in Singapore on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
33°C(No)
+2.7¢
30°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Latest weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in Singapore (specifically Changi Airpor...
🔓 Log in to see more
Exotics
Predicting the daily highest temperature of a specific city belongs to meteorological prediction markets. While common on these platforms, it still carries a sense of novelty and a strong betting nature for the general public.
Movers
May 3, 2026 (09:43) - May 3, 2026 (16:13): The price of the 33°C option experienced wild swings, plunging from 38.5c to 12.5c, rebounding to 42c, and then falling back to 26c. Meanwhile, 31°C surged from 17.5c to 39.5c, and 32°C dropped from 36.5c to 28.5c. This volatility was driven by real-time updates to weather forecasting models regarding cloud cover and precipitation chances for May 4, causing bettors to rapidly readjust their expectations between the 31-33°C range. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The market pricing remained relatively stable, with 31°C and 32°C dominating as the consensus expectations.
AI Analysis
Historically, how often has Singapore Changi Airport hit a high of 35°C or higher in early May?
Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on May 4?
Weather|$16.8k Vol|
time16 hrs 31 mins

Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+15.5¢
33°C(No)
+8.5¢
31°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Kuala Lumpur International Air...
🔓 Log in to see more
Exotics
Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is mostly casual small talk in daily life, but it functions as a niche yet standard category in prediction markets. It is not overly bizarre, but the general public does not actively calculate or trade it.
AI Analysis
When exactly is the data from the Wunderground Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport Station considered 'finalized', and how does the resolution criteria handle the rounding for whole degrees Celsius?
Who will be on the Vogue Best Dressed list?
Culture|$15.2k Vol|
time4 hrs 31 mins

Who will be on the Vogue Best Dressed list?

Top Undervalued
+56.5¢
Anna Wintour(Yes)
+52.5¢
Frank Ocean(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With the 2026 Met Gala only two days away, market pricing primarily reflects the probability of conf...
🔓 Log in to see more
Rule Risk
Moderate risk. While there is a clear deadline (May 15, 2026), the rule stating the article 'need not be explicitly titled' the same and relies on finding an 'equivalent list' introduces subjective interpretation. If Vogue alters its editorial format, splits the list into multiple thematic articles, or publishes a non-traditional format, it could create settlement disputes.
Exotics
The event focuses on pop culture and fashion magazine editorial choices. While predicting red carpet best-dressed lists is a fun novelty topic for entertainment fans, it is moderately niche and entertainment-driven compared to mainstream political or financial forecasting, though not bizarrely out of the ordinary.
Movers
April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the prices of multiple options such as Beyoncé, Anna Wintour, and Emma Chamberlain experienced violent fluctuations of over 30c. For instance, Beyoncé's price surged from 49c to 88c, then dropped significantly before rebounding to 81.5c; Anna Wintour's price experienced multiple massive swings between 26c and 80.5c. The reason is that as the Met Gala approaches, a barrage of social media rumors and insider leaks regarding their final attendance has triggered extremely frequent speculative trading.
AI Analysis
Explain simply: What exact Vogue article needs to be published by May 15, 2026, for this Met Gala Best Dressed market to resolve as Yes?
Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?
Weather|$19.8k Vol|
time16 hrs 31 mins

Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+18.5¢
82-83°F(No)
+11.2¢
86-87°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, Miami will experience rain and thunderstorms on Monday, M...
🔓 Log in to see more
AI Analysis
Search historical weather data to calculate the actual occurrence frequency of the highest temperature at Miami Intl Airport falling into the specific option ranges (e.g., 86-87°F, 88-89°F) on May 4th over the past few years.
Elon Musk # tweets May 4 - May 6, 2026?
Culture|$57.4k Vol|
time2 days 20 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets May 4 - May 6, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+7¢
40-64(No)
+1.5¢
90-114(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
This market predicts the number of tweets by Elon Musk in a 48-hour period (May 4 to May 6), countin...
🔓 Log in to see more
Rule Risk
The rules contain specific caveats: only 'main feed' replies count, deleted posts must survive ~5 minutes for the tracker to capture them, and the primary resolution source is a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than manual counting on X. This creates moderate resolution risk as casual observers' manual counts can easily diverge from the tracker's data.
Exotics
Betting on the exact volume of social media posts by a specific billionaire over a random 48-hour window is a highly niche and novelty-driven market, primarily catering to crypto-betting culture rather than mainstream predictive topics.
Movers
May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the '40-64' option surged from 25c to around 60c, while the '65-89' option dropped from 27c to roughly 15c. This occurred because market participants recalibrated their expectations based on Musk's most recent posting frequency, anticipating a more moderate activity level falling solidly into the 40-64 bracket for this specific 48-hour window.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this market in simple terms, specifically clarifying how quotes, reposts, and replies are counted.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Brinker Harding
YesNo
96.55¢
3.45¢
99¢
1¢
+2.4¢
0¢
Dan Frei
YesNo
0.85¢
99.15¢
0¢
100¢
0¢
+0.8¢

Expand to view all 3 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Brett Lindstrom's price briefly spiked from 1.45c to 16.85c on April 29, before quickly crashing back to 0.65c on April 30. This was likely due to an illiquid market trade or a fat-finger error rather than fundamental changes, as he had already withdrawn. March 10, 2026 - April 15, 2026, prices remained highly stable across all options, with Brinker Harding hovering around 94c-97c, showing no fluctuations exceeding 10c. January 31, 2026, key contender Brett Lindstrom announced his withdrawal, triggering a major market repricing that crashed his shares and established Harding as the prohibitive favorite. June 30, 2025, incumbent Don Bacon announced his retirement, initially sparking liquidity and speculation around multiple potential candidates.

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is PolyPredict AI and how can I access it?
2. How does the AI determine the "Fair Value"?
3. What makes the "Arbitrage Plans" unique?
4. What is the difference between Event and Live Markets?
5. What are the key differences between the Free and Pro versions?
6. Can I use PolyPredict AI on Telegram?

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

PolyPredict AIPolyPredict AI
TwitterTelegramEmail
English

Market data provided by PolyMarket.

© 2026 SynthMind AI Limited.