[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the latest odds and order book depth for candidates like Cinde Warmington and Deaglan McEachern. Combine this with current NH campaign dynamics to assess fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the latest odds and order book depth for candidates like Cinde Warmington and Deaglan McEachern. Combine this with current NH campaign dynamics to assess fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing: Search for "New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary 2026" and candidate names to find breaking news from the past week regarding campaign events, debate performances, or scandals, specifically looking for reports from WMUR or NHPR.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing: Search for "New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary 2026" and candidate names to find breaking news from the past week regarding campaign events, debate performances, or scandals, specifically looking for reports from WMUR or NHPR.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 primary polling data from the UNH Survey Center or Saint Anselm College, and compare it with the win probabilities on Polymarket to identify significant cognitive biases.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 primary polling data from the UNH Survey Center or Saint Anselm College, and compare it with the win probabilities on Polymarket to identify significant cognitive biases.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Key Players Mining: Search for endorsements from NH Democratic heavyweights (e.g., Senators Jeanne Shaheen or Maggie Hassan). Confirm if any candidate has secured decisive intra-party support.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Key Players Mining: Search for endorsements from NH Democratic heavyweights (e.g., Senators Jeanne Shaheen or Maggie Hassan). Confirm if any candidate has secured decisive intra-party support.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Google Trends Analysis: Compare the Google search interest for "Cinde Warmington", "John Kiper", and others specifically within the New Hampshire region to determine which candidate is gaining grassroots traction.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Google Trends Analysis: Compare the Google search interest for "Cinde Warmington", "John Kiper", and others specifically within the New Hampshire region to determine which candidate is gaining grassroots traction.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Confirm the official filing deadline for the 2026 NH Primary. Verify if the listed candidates have officially filed their paperwork to rule out the risk of them not running and their shares going to zero.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Confirm the official filing deadline for the 2026 NH Primary. Verify if the listed candidates have officially filed their paperwork to rule out the risk of them not running and their shares going to zero.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Specifically search for arguments on "Why [Candidate Name] will lose NH primary" for the current frontrunner, focusing on past lobbying history, policy controversies, or fundraising disadvantages.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Specifically search for arguments on "Why [Candidate Name] will lose NH primary" for the current frontrunner, focusing on past lobbying history, policy controversies, or fundraising disadvantages.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Carefully review the rules: if a "dark horse" candidate not listed in the options wins, how will the market resolve? Confirm if an "Other" option exists and what it encompasses.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Carefully review the rules: if a "dark horse" candidate not listed in the options wins, how will the market resolve? Confirm if an "Other" option exists and what it encompasses.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search NH Campaign Finance Reports to analyze which candidate leads in fundraising for Q1 2026, inferring where the "smart money" is placing its bets.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search NH Campaign Finance Reports to analyze which candidate leads in fundraising for Q1 2026, inferring where the "smart money" is placing its bets.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Check if major debates or key fundraising dinners like the "McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner" are scheduled soon, as these events could trigger significant price volatility.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Check if major debates or key fundraising dinners like the "McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner" are scheduled soon, as these events could trigger significant price volatility.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Community Disagreement Summary: Browse the #NHPolitics hashtag on Twitter or local political blogs (like Granite Grok/NH Journal) to summarize the core disagreements between progressive and moderate candidate supporters.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Community Disagreement Summary: Browse the #NHPolitics hashtag on Twitter or local political blogs (like Granite Grok/NH Journal) to summarize the core disagreements between progressive and moderate candidate supporters.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment: Given the total volume is only $17k, assess the estimated slippage if entering a $1,000 position on a specific candidate right now.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment: Given the total volume is only $17k, assess the estimated slippage if entering a $1,000 position on a specific candidate right now.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Is the market currently in a "lottery ticket" state (low win rate, high odds) due to lack of info, or has a clear frontrunner emerged (picking up pennies)?

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Is the market currently in a "lottery ticket" state (low win rate, high odds) due to lack of info, or has a clear frontrunner emerged (picking up pennies)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: With 6 months until the September 8 resolution, analyze if holding "NO" on longshots is more capital-efficient than holding "YES" on the favorite.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: With 6 months until the September 8 resolution, analyze if holding "NO" on longshots is more capital-efficient than holding "YES" on the favorite.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate if the expected ROI of locking funds in this market until September significantly exceeds the risk-free APY of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave/Compound).

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate if the expected ROI of locking funds in this market until September significantly exceeds the risk-free APY of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave/Compound).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Based on your confidence level in NH politics, if you believe a candidate is undervalued, what percentage of your bankroll does the Kelly Criterion suggest allocating?

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Based on your confidence level in NH politics, if you believe a candidate is undervalued, what percentage of your bankroll does the Kelly Criterion suggest allocating?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Suggest a core fundamental indicator (e.g., a candidate's polling numbers in UNH polls dropping below 10%) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate stop-loss exit.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Suggest a core fundamental indicator (e.g., a candidate's polling numbers in UNH polls dropping below 10%) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate stop-loss exit.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Low Liquidity "Stink Bid" Strategy: Given the low liquidity, should you place extremely low bids (Stink Bids) for underdog candidates deep in the order book to catch sudden panic selling?

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Low Liquidity "Stink Bid" Strategy: Given the low liquidity, should you place extremely low bids (Stink Bids) for underdog candidates deep in the order book to catch sudden panic selling?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Highly Correlated Assets Recommendation: If heavily invested in this market, what related NH Congressional or US Senate election markets can serve as hedging instruments?

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Highly Correlated Assets Recommendation: If heavily invested in this market, what related NH Congressional or US Senate election markets can serve as hedging instruments?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize the info to output a brief trading plan including the preferred candidate, target entry price, take-profit target, and specific invalidation conditions.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize the info to output a brief trading plan including the preferred candidate, target entry price, take-profit target, and specific invalidation conditions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$18.2k Vol|

173 days 1 hrs

New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Deaglan McEachern

YesNo

4.2¢

95.8¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+4.2¢

John Kiper

YesNo

13¢

87¢

16¢

84¢

+3¢

0¢

Tom Sherman

YesNo

3.85¢

96.15¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+2.8¢

Cinde Warmington

YesNo

80¢

20¢

82¢

18¢

+2¢

0¢

Donovan Fenton

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

AI Insights:

4 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

As of mid-March 2026, Cinde Warmington is the undisputed frontrunner (having officially launched on Feb 18), benefiting from high name recognition and the exit of key rivals. John Kiper remains the only viable active challenger; while polling as an underdog, he commands a floor of ~15-16% as the sole progressive alternative. Crucially, Deaglan McEachern officially announced he would NOT run on Feb 27, rendering his fair value 0. The current 4.2c price represents dead money due to market lag. Tom Sherman shows no active campaign signs.

Sign up to view more information

Divergence

A significant 'zombie price' divergence exists. Despite Deaglan McEachern explicitly declining to run, the market retains a ~4% probability, which is completely disconnected from reality (0% chance). For Warmington and Kiper, market pricing aligns well with the mainstream narrative of Warmington as the dominant frontrunner and Kiper as the underdog.

New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner