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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Duke Rodriguez
YesNo
Greg Hull
YesNo
Belinda Robertson
YesNo
Mark Murphy
YesNo
Steve Lanier
YesNo
John Sanchez
YesNo
Susana Martinez
YesNo
Brian Cillessen
YesNo
Judith Nakamura
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 18:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The results of the New Mexico GOP Pre-Primary Convention on March 8, 2026, have fundamentally reshaped the race. Greg Hull (Mayor of Rio Rancho) won a commanding 55% of the delegate vote (239 votes), securing his spot as the clear establishment frontrunner; his fair value is around 70c. Doug Turner (unlisted in this market) placed second with 24% (104 votes) and is the primary challenger. Duke Rodriguez (39 votes) and Steve Lanier (31 votes) performed poorly, each receiving less than 10% of the vote. They failed to qualify via the convention and must now rely on petitions to access the ballot. While Rodriguez claims to have signatures, his market price of 23c is completely disconnected from his status as a marginal candidate with low single-digit support.
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Movers
From March 7, 2026, to March 8, 2026, Greg Hull's price surged from 57.5c to 77.5c (+20c) after he won a decisive 55% of the delegate vote at the New Mexico GOP Pre-Primary Convention, solidifying his status as the clear frontrunner.
From March 7, 2026, to March 8, 2026, Steve Lanier's price crashed from 11c to 4.5c (-6.5c), and Duke Rodriguez's price plummeted from 29c to 19.5c (-9.5c), as both candidates performed poorly at the convention (receiving <10% of votes each) and failed to qualify for the ballot via the convention route.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market prices Duke Rodriguez at a ~23% win probability, yet he secured only 9% of the vote (39 delegates) at the March 8th GOP convention, trailing far behind Greg Hull (239 delegates) and unlisted candidate Doug Turner (104 delegates). Additionally, the absence of Doug Turner as a market option means that a Turner victory resolves all listed options (including Rodriguez) to 'No'. The market is severely overvaluing Rodriguez's viability.
