Moderate risk exists. The rules explicitly require the 'final written agreement' to be 'formally signed,' excluding tentative agreements or ratifications. In labor negotiations, a tentative deal is often reached weeks or months before the formal signing. This lag could cause market participants to misjudge the resolution timing, especially close to the deadline.

April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of the 'June 30' option plummeted from 94c to 75c. The reason is likely market anxiety over the prolonged absence of an official press release confirming the formal signing of the 'long-form' CBA, prompting some capital to exit due to the lack of visible progress. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the 'March 31' option plummeted from 93.55c to 60.6c. The reason is that with only a few days left until the end-of-March deadline, the market developed serious doubts about whether the WNBA and the players' association could complete the cumbersome administrative process from reaching an agreement to formally signing all documents in such a short time. March 6, 2026 - March 10, 2026, the price of the 'June 30' option plummeted from 93c to 83c, while the 'March 31' option actually rose slightly (from 47c to 54c). This suggests a liquidity gap in the market, or large capital exiting the long-dated position causing a price crash, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. Feb 9, 2026 - Feb 11, 2026, despite the league's new CBA proposal on Feb 7, the market reacted with indifference, with prices flatlining around 50c.

The current market price of 75c implies a 25% probability that the agreement will not be formally signed by June 30. However, mainstream media reports and league operations show that the new CBA has been unanimously ratified, and teams are already executing free agency and training camps under its new rules (e.g., higher salary caps and specific extension provisions). This indicates the deal is practically irreversible and broadly considered a done deal by the media. The market has severely overstated the risk of administrative delays in signing the final paperwork.