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John Ternus
YesNo
Sabih Khan
YesNo
Greg Joswiak
YesNo
Craig Federighi
YesNo
AI Insights:
12 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 18, 2026, with only 9 months left in the year, the sum of all 'Yes' prices (~64 cents) implies a 64% probability that Tim Cook will step down this year. Given Apple's conservative transition style (usually telegraphed years in advance) and Cook's continued activity, this probability is severely overestimated. 'Time decay' is now the dominant factor; 'Other' (no successor announced) is statistically the most likely outcome (fair value >50c). Therefore, while Ternus remains the frontrunner, his price should be discounted to ~35c to reflect the shrinking timeline, and Sabih Khan should return to single-digit valuation as his recent spike proved to be baseless speculation.
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Hedging
AAPL
A change in Apple's CEO is a major corporate governance event. If a continuity candidate like COO Jeff Williams (though not listed, implies context) or John Ternus is chosen, the market reaction might be mild. However, a selection of Craig Federighi or a surprise candidate, or a sudden departure of Tim Cook, could cause significant volatility in AAPL stock (Score 4). Given Apple's massive weight in major indices, this volatility would transmit slightly to the Nasdaq 100.
Movers
March 15, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Sabih Khan's price crashed from 28.5c to 10c, a 65% drop, as the speculative bubble burst due to a lack of fundamental support. Simultaneously, John Ternus dropped from 59c to 48.5c (a >10c move), as the market realized the 2026 time window is closing, and 'time decay' is eroding the premium of the frontrunner.
March 12, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Sabih Khan experienced a brief hype cycle, pushing prices to 28.5c, which proved to be an unsustainable 'pump and dump'. During this period, Ternus faced strong resistance near 60c, indicating lacking market confidence in Cook's imminent departure.
Divergence
The market pricing implies a ~64% probability of a successor being announced by the end of 2026, which diverges significantly from mainstream analysts (e.g., Bloomberg's Gurman). The consensus view is that Tim Cook will likely stay until the next major hardware platform (like mature AR glasses or foldables) is fully established, and transitions typically involve a longer lead time.
