All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Alison Loehnis
YesNo
Teri List
YesNo
Stephanie Linnartz
YesNo
Jon McNeill
YesNo
Meghan Frank
YesNo
André Maestrini
YesNo
Marti Morfitt
YesNo
Jane Nielsen
YesNo
Emily White
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 19:21 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is in a completely irrational 'super bubble' state, with the sum of all 'Yes' prices reaching a mathematically impossible 266% (theoretical limit is ~100%). This indicates blind speculation or broken market maker algorithms. Most board members (Loehnis, List, Linnartz, McNeill) are erroneously anchored at ~35c, while their actual probability of becoming permanent CEO is negligible. Meghan Frank, as CFO, is a logical internal candidate, but her 50c price is also overvalued. Conversely, Jane Nielsen, despite being priced at rock bottom (3.5c), remains the only candidate with an external catalyst (activist investor Elliott Management's backing), making her fair value significantly higher than the current market price.
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Exotics
This is a moderately exotic corporate governance prediction market. While CEO succession is a standard business topic, betting on a specific name without a clear vacancy signal is highly speculative and niche, appealing primarily to those tracking retail executive movements.
Hedging
LULU
This event is directly correlated with Lululemon (LULU) stock. A CEO change is a material corporate governance event; specifically, if current CEO Calvin McDonald departs unexpectedly or if the successor choice surprises the market, it could trigger ~5% volatility in the stock. No significant impact on broad indices.
Movers
Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 15, 2026, Marti Morfitt's price surged from 14.25c to 31.45c, likely due to a liquidity-driven 'catch-up' trade aligning her price with other board members (all ~30c), or misplaced speculation that the Chair would transition from interim to permanent CEO.
Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 14, 2026, Meghan Frank's price jumped from 41.1c to 54.45c before retracing, indicating heightened speculation on the internal CFO taking the helm.
Feb 09, 2026 - Feb 10, 2026, Jane Nielsen's price previously spiked to 43c on Elliott Management news before crashing to single digits, showing a rapid loss of confidence in the activist investor's influence.
Divergence
Extremely significant divergence. Market pricing implies 'everyone will win' (total probability >260%), which is completely detached from reality. Specifically regarding Jane Nielsen, mainstream business media (WSJ/Bloomberg) focus on Elliott Management's push for her as a key contender, yet the prediction market prices her near zero (3.5c); conversely, the market assigns ~35% odds to a group of board members with zero news coverage.
