All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Oliver Glasner
YesNo
Luis Enrique
YesNo
Thomas Tuchel
YesNo
Xabi Alonso
YesNo
Ole Gunnar Solskjær
YesNo
Xavi
YesNo
Enzo Maresca
YesNo
Gareth Southgate
YesNo
Michael Carrick
YesNo
Kieran McKenna
YesNo
Darren Fletcher
YesNo
Laurent Blanc
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Carrick is the 'clear frontrunner' as interim manager with excellent results (22 pts from 9 games), but he is not a lock; unlisted 'Field' candidates like Julian Nagelsmann (Germany) and Roberto De Zerbi remain serious threats as they are reportedly 'keen'. Glasner has faded significantly from his January peak due to poor form at Palace and 'antagonistic' behavior. Crucially, Thomas Tuchel (extended with England to 2028 on Feb 12) and Luis Enrique (extended with PSG to 2027 on Feb 7) are essentially 'Dead Money' with fair values of 0, making their current prices highly inefficient.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No Luis Enrique' or 'No Thomas Tuchel'
Plan Description:
This represents a near risk-free yield. Luis Enrique officially extended his contract with PSG until 2027 on Feb 7, 2026, and Thomas Tuchel extended with England until Euro 2028 on Feb 12, 2026. The market is pricing them at ~9c and ~7c respectively, which is essentially 'Dead Money'. Buying 'No' is a highly secure play against confirmed contractual reality.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 9¢
|Annualized yield: 13.2%
Hedging
MANU
Manchester United (MANU) is listed on the NYSE. The appointment of a manager is material news affecting sporting performance and commercial outlook. While it won't move broader indices, it often triggers significant short-term volatility in the individual stock (typically ~3-5%), depending on the market reception of the appointee.
Divergence
Extreme divergence. Mainstream news confirmed weeks ago that Thomas Tuchel (Feb 12) and Luis Enrique (Feb 7) extended contracts with England and PSG respectively, effectively ruling them out. Yet, the prediction market still assigns them a combined probability of ~17% (Tuchel 7.25c + Enrique 9.45c), which is completely divorced from fundamental reality and represents inefficient pricing.
