Next Manchester United manager?
Soccer|$733.6k Vol|
time242 days 22 hrs

Next Manchester United manager? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.02 06:51
Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
Thomas Tuchel(No)
+0.7¢
Gareth Southgate(No)
+0.6¢
Ole Gunnar Solskjær(Yes)

Next Manchester United manager? AI analysis: • +8.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Michael Carrick's price has recently pulled back from 86c to 75.5c, while Xavi's price surged from 2...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in London on May 3?
Weather|$54.1k Vol|
time10 hrs 47 mins

Highest temperature in London on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+2¢
18°C(No)
+1.2¢
21°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature in London on May 3, 2026, is expe...
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Movers
May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 20°C option surged from 10c to 42.5c, and 19°C surged from 21.5c to a peak of 47.5c. Conversely, the 18°C and 17°C options plummeted from 36.5c and 25.5c to 6c and 0.9c, respectively. This was due to updated weather forecasts closer to the resolution date, which significantly raised the expected temperature for the day (from 17-18°C to 19-20°C).
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 3?
Weather|$17.5k Vol|
time10 hrs 47 mins

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+29¢
21°C(No)
+23.5¢
22°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest Wunderground forecast, the high temperature for Sao Paulo-Guarulhos Internat...
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Exotics
Weather prediction is a standard but niche category in prediction markets. While specialized traders focus on this, the general public rarely speculates on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific day.
Divergence
The prediction market currently concentrates its highest probabilities on 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C (totaling over 60%), but the resolution source (Wunderground) currently forecasts a high of only 64°F (~18°C) for May 3. Market prices may be influenced by other forecasting models (e.g., AccuWeather predicting 23°C) or historical climate averages, creating a noticeable divergence from the short-term forecast of the official resolution source.
AI Analysis
Which AI company will have the second-highest revenue May 4-10?
Tech|$10.9k Vol|
time6 days 22 hrs

Which AI company will have the second-highest revenue May 4-10?

Top Undervalued
+14.7¢
OpenAI(No)
+7.8¢
Google(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices indicate that, given the rule to select the second-ranked company, OpenAI has ...
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Rule Risk
The market asks for the 'second-highest' rather than the highest revenue, which could trap inattentive traders. Additionally, resolution relies entirely on short-term estimated data from a specific third-party platform (Anera) rather than official earnings, introducing risk of unexpected outcomes due to changes in estimation methodology or data delays.
Exotics
While predicting the revenue performance of top AI companies is relatively common, targeting the 'second place' for estimated inference revenue within a specific single week is highly niche and obscure, giving it a moderate level of novelty.
Movers
May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: OpenAI's price surged from 29c to 82.8c, while Anthropic's price plummeted from 65.1c to 9.8c. This was due to a major reversal in market expectations for the rankings, with OpenAI again viewed as the most likely second-place finisher (possibly due to data suggesting it couldn't surpass the leader). May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: OpenAI's price plummeted from 97.2c to 29c, while Anthropic's price surged from 1.1c to 65.1c, reflecting extreme volatility in expectations for inference revenue rankings during the period. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: OpenAI's price surged from 48c to 97.2c, while all other options (e.g., Google, Anthropic) crashed, as early data indicated OpenAI was securely in second place.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Paris on May 3?
Weather|$45.6k Vol|
time10 hrs 47 mins

Highest temperature in Paris on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+33¢
20°C(No)
+9¢
18°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature in Paris on May 3, 2026, is expected ...
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Exotics
Betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a somewhat niche and novelty market. While weather forecasts are common, betting on them to the exact degree is rare for the general public and mostly appeals to weather enthusiasts or quantitative modelers.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Thomas Tuchel
YesNo
9.5¢
90.5¢
99¢
+8.5¢
Gareth Southgate
YesNo
0.75¢
99.25¢
100¢
+0.7¢

Expand to view all 12 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Hedging
MANU
Manchester United (MANU) is listed on the NYSE. The appointment of a manager is material news affecting sporting performance and commercial outlook. While it won't move broader indices, it often triggers significant short-term volatility in the individual stock (typically ~3-5%), depending on the market reception of the appointee.
Movers
April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, Michael Carrick's price pulled back from 86c to 75.5c, while Xavi's price surged from 2.6c to 10.45c, reflecting the market's rapid reaction to new rumors of Xavi potentially taking over Manchester United, slightly shaking the absolute confidence in Carrick's permanent appointment. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Michael Carrick's price surged from 74c to 86c as the end of the season approaches and his continued excellent performance as interim manager significantly boosted market confidence in his permanent appointment. April 26, 2026 - April 29, 2026, Michael Carrick's price climbed steadily from 66.5c to 77.5c as he continued to lead Manchester United to strong results, raising market expectations of a permanent contract. April 17, 2026 - April 19, 2026, Oliver Glasner's price experienced extreme volatility, surging from 12.5c to 25c before rapidly falling back to 13c, reflecting rapid market speculation followed by a cooldown. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, Michael Carrick's price plunged from 67.5c to 53.5c due to a shock 1-2 home defeat to Leeds United, sparking market doubts about his permanent appointment. March 15, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Michael Carrick's price rebounded from 49c to 59c as he secured key victories, solidifying his frontrunner status. March 4, 2026 - March 10, 2026, Carrick's price retraced from 68.5c to 55.5c, reflecting earlier anxiety over the lack of a permanent appointment.

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