The rules clearly define FDV calculation and the '1 day after launch' timestamp. The main risks are: 1. The lack of a confirmed launch date; if no token launches by the end of 2027, it resolves 'No', introducing long-term uncertainty. 2. 'The most liquid price source' can be contentious during the volatile early hours of a DEX launch. 3. Verification of 'Total Token Supply' can be opaque or manipulated in the very early stages.

There is a severe divergence between current prediction market prices and the valuation consensus in the mainstream crypto VC space. Mainstream expectations dictate that an infrastructure project backed by a $25M Series A from top-tier funds is highly likely to launch with an FDV well over $100M (typically $500M to $1B+). However, the prediction market currently prices the probability of an FDV > $100M at less than 30%. This divergence does not stem from bearish fundamentals, but rather from the mechanical limitations of the prediction market itself: because capital could be locked up until late 2027 in an illiquid market, rational arbitrage capital remains on the sidelines, leaving prices in a state of persistent, deep discount.