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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Arvell Reese
YesNo
David Bailey
YesNo
Jeremiyah Love
YesNo
Carson Beck
YesNo
Ty Simpson
YesNo
Sonny Styles
YesNo
Trevor Goosby
YesNo
Nico Iamaleava
YesNo
Fernando Mendoza
YesNo
Jordyn Tyson
YesNo
Reuben Bain Jr.
YesNo
Drew Allar
YesNo
Caleb Downs
YesNo
Kayden McDonald
YesNo
Carnell Tate
YesNo
Peter Woods
YesNo
LT Overton
YesNo
Francis Mauigoa
YesNo
T.J. Parker
YesNo
Dante Moore
YesNo
Kadyn Proctor
YesNo
Keldric Faulk
YesNo
Garrett Nussmeier
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 05:34 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is in a state of extreme irrationality with a total implied probability summing to approximately 168% (significant over-round), indicating that 'Yes' prices for most candidates are severely overvalued. Arvell Reese remains the logical favorite for the #2 pick (Jets need Edge/LB), but his 62c price carries a premium; fair value is closer to 50c. The most glaring mispricing is seen in non-premium positions like Jeremiyah Love (RB) and Sonny Styles/Caleb Downs (Safeties/DBs) trading at 16-17c. Running backs and safeties are rarely drafted second overall in the modern NFL; their fair value should be under 5c. The market is experiencing 'rotational hype' due to low liquidity, causing distorted prices.
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Movers
March 9, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Sonny Styles' price surged from 2.5c to 17.5c, while concurrently, Reuben Bain Jr. plummeted from 16.5c to 5.6c. This drastic 'seesaw' action indicates capital is rapidly rotating from one defensive candidate to another without fundamental support, driven largely by speculative sentiment.
March 2, 2026 - March 3, 2026, Ty Simpson, Jeremiyah Love, and Fernando Mendoza all experienced extreme volatility, skyrocketing from lows (~3c) to over 20c within 24 hours before partially retracting. This collective 'V-shaped' reversal demonstrates extremely shallow market depth where small capital flows create massive price illusions.
February 17, 2026 - February 18, 2026, a 'flash crash and pump' event occurred where candidates like Carson Beck dropped to single digits before collectively rebounding to over 30c, suggesting a liquidity crunch or algorithmic anomaly at the time.
Divergence
Market prices show Arvell Reese (62%) as the clear favorite, which aligns with the uncertainty at the top, but the divergence lies in the chaotic 'second tier'. Mainstream media and NFL analysts typically view Quarterbacks (like Carson Beck, Ty Simpson) or elite Tackles as top contenders for #2. However, the prediction market is pricing a Running Back (Jeremiyah Love) and a Safety (Sonny Styles) at levels equal to or higher than the QBs (~17%), which sharply contradicts standard NFL positional value logic.
