April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 33°C option rose from 23c to 36.5c, the 34°C option fell from 26.5c to 15c, and the 32°C option fluctuated from 22c up to 35.5c before settling at 30.5c. The reason is that as April 15 approaches, meteorological forecast models (such as Met Office and AccuWeather) provided more precise predictions regarding the peak temperature of the upcoming heatwave, consolidating market expectations around 33°C. Due to the lack of continuous historical data, no price movements exceeding 10 cents have been observed recently.

Between April 13, 2026 and April 14, 2026, the '74°F or higher' option surged from 28c to 48c, and '72-73°F' rose from 23c to 33c. Meanwhile, all temperature brackets of 71°F and below plummeted by more than 10c. This massive shift is due to the increasing stability of weather models as the resolution date nears, with forecasting agencies uniformly revising the expected high temperatures upwards.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, prices for core range options such as 84-85°F, 86-87°F, and 82-83°F experienced repeated fluctuations exceeding 10c. This was caused by minor adjustments in short-term meteorological models regarding the impact of sea breezes, causing the estimated high temperature to swing between 82°F and 88°F, leading to sharp corrections in market expectations.

There is a significant divergence. The prediction market's implied probability for '30°C or higher' is only 38%. However, the official 9-day weather forecast by the Hong Kong Observatory explicitly states that the maximum temperature in urban areas on April 15 will reach 30°C to 31°C [5, 9, 12]. The market might be overly conservative, anticipating volatile spring weather or underestimating the temperature at the Observatory headquarters compared to the northern New Territories, but overall the pricing is too low compared to official forecasts.

While weather prediction markets are somewhat common on prediction platforms, betting on the exact highest temperature in a specific city (Munich) on a specific day remains a niche and unconventional focus for the general public.

On April 13, 2026, the price of the '16°C or higher' option surged from 10c to 32c, before retracing to 21.5c. This was driven by intraday updates in some meteorological models that slightly revised the expected daytime high for April 15 upwards, prompting speculative buying in the extreme high-temperature bracket. Between April 10 and April 12, 2026, no significant price movement exceeding 10 cents was observed for any single option. The market exhibited a typical convergence trend for weather forecasts, with capital being allocated steadily.