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Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Anthony Cirelli
YesNo
Nick Suzuki
YesNo
Elias Pettersson
YesNo
Bo Horvat
YesNo
Nico Hischier
YesNo
Mitchell Marner
YesNo
Sam Reinhart
YesNo
Auston Matthews
YesNo
Leon Draisaitl
YesNo
Macklin Celebrini
YesNo
Mark Stone
YesNo
Robert Thomas
YesNo
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
YesNo
Jordan Staal
YesNo
Mikael Backlund
YesNo
Quinton Byfield
YesNo
Roope Hintz
YesNo
Sidney Crosby
YesNo
Ryan O'Reilly
YesNo
Jack Eichel
YesNo
Shane Pinto
YesNo
Matt Boldy
YesNo
Chandler Stephenson
YesNo
Adam Lowry
YesNo
Alex Tuch
YesNo
Valeri Nichushkin
YesNo
Joel Eriksson Ek
YesNo
Sebastian Aho
YesNo
Seth Jarvis
YesNo
Phillip Danault
YesNo
Anze Kopitar
YesNo
Marcus Foligno
YesNo
Jason Robertson
YesNo
Artturi Lehkonen
YesNo
William Karlsson
YesNo
Brandon Hagel
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.05 06:28 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is currently in an extremely irrational state, with the sum of implied probabilities for the top five candidates approaching 200%, violating basic mathematical logic (sum must be 100%). Anthony Cirelli's massive price surge on March 1st (from 7.5c to 51.5c) indicates decisive breaking news (likely a PHWA mid-season poll or major media outlet naming him the frontrunner). However, the market has failed to downwardly adjust the prices of previous favorites (Horvat, Pettersson, Suzuki), leaving them overpriced in the 35c-40c range. The fair value model aggressively discounts everyone except Cirelli and Hischier to correct this premium based on a zero-sum principle.
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Movers
March 3, 2026 - March 4, 2026: Anthony Cirelli's price experienced severe liquidity volatility, rebounding from 15.5c back to 48c. This was likely a correction following a profit-taking dip or a flash crash caused by thin market depth.
February 28, 2026 - March 1, 2026: Anthony Cirelli's price skyrocketed from 7.5c to 51.5c, driven by a fundamental shift in late-season award tracking, likely due to a major media straw poll or insider consensus identifying him as the clear favorite.
Divergence
There is a severe 'crowded long' divergence. While Cirelli's price surge reflects the latest mainstream media consensus (identifying him as the new frontrunner), the market has not simultaneously sold off Suzuki, Horvat, and Pettersson. Current pricing implies five different players each have a 35%-40% chance of winning, which is impossible in voting reality (typically only 1-2 contenders remain). The market is severely overestimating the equity of the trailing candidates.
