[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and user discussions for top contenders like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Adam Fox. Combine this with the latest NHL official stats (points, +/-, and advanced metrics like Corsi/Fenwick) to assess if the current odds accurately reflect the players' actual probability of winning, and identify any arbitrage opportunities or liquidity risks.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and user discussions for top contenders like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Adam Fox. Combine this with the latest NHL official stats (points, +/-, and advanced metrics like Corsi/Fenwick) to assess if the current odds accurately reflect the players' actual probability of winning, and identify any arbitrage opportunities or liquidity risks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Injury & Attendance Key Variables Confirmation: Search official NHL injury reports and team news to confirm if key contenders (e.g., Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Roman Josi) have recently suffered injuries leading to long-term absence. Given that Norris Trophy voting values full-season performance, verify if these players are on track to meet the necessary games-played threshold to maintain their competitiveness.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Injury & Attendance Key Variables Confirmation: Search official NHL injury reports and team news to confirm if key contenders (e.g., Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Roman Josi) have recently suffered injuries leading to long-term absence. Given that Norris Trophy voting values full-season performance, verify if these players are on track to meet the necessary games-played threshold to maintain their competitiveness.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal & Voting Bias Comparison: Review the statistical patterns of the last 5 Norris Trophy winners (high-scoring vs. all-around defensemen). Analyze recent voting trends of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association (PHWA) to determine if this season's narrative favors "offensive explosion" (like Evan Bouchard) or "two-way dominance" (like Cale Makar), and judge if the current market price misprices the winning odds of specific playstyles.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal & Voting Bias Comparison: Review the statistical patterns of the last 5 Norris Trophy winners (high-scoring vs. all-around defensemen). Analyze recent voting trends of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association (PHWA) to determine if this season's narrative favors "offensive explosion" (like Evan Bouchard) or "two-way dominance" (like Cale Makar), and judge if the current market price misprices the winning odds of specific playstyles.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Sports|$128.0k Vol|

103 days 5 hrs

NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Evan Bouchard

YesNo

16.05¢

83.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+15¢

Cale Makar

YesNo

39.5¢

60.5¢

52¢

48¢

+12.5¢

0¢

Zach Werenski

YesNo

38.55¢

61.45¢

45¢

55¢

+6.5¢

0¢

Quinn Hughes

YesNo

4.05¢

95.95¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+2¢

Lane Hutson

YesNo

1.6¢

98.4¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.6¢

Brock Faber

YesNo

1.35¢

98.65¢

0¢

Morgan Rielly

YesNo

0.15¢

99.85¢

0¢

Filip Hronek

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Erik Karlsson

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Cam Fowler

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

Jaccob Slavin

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

0¢

Mason Lohrei

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

MacKenzie Weegar

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

Simon Edvinsson

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Jake Sanderson

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Roman Josi

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Dante Fabbro

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Mikhail Sergachev

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Sean Durzi

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Owen Power

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

Brandon Montour

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

John Carlson

YesNo

0.6¢

99.4¢

0¢

K'Andre Miller

YesNo

0.45¢

99.55¢

0¢

Jared Spurgeon

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

Vince Dunn

YesNo

0.5¢

99.5¢

0¢

Luke Hughes

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

0¢

Devon Toews

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

Jackson LaCombe

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Esa Lindell

YesNo

0.1¢

99.9¢

0¢

Shayne Gostisbehere

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

0¢

Alex Vlasic

YesNo

1.55¢

98.45¢

0¢

Aaron Ekblad

YesNo

1.45¢

98.55¢

0¢

Adam Fox

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Dougie Hamilton

YesNo

0.9¢

99.1¢

0¢

Colton Parayko

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

Hampus Lindholm

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Philip Broberg

YesNo

0.9¢

99.1¢

0¢

Drew Doughty

YesNo

1.1¢

98.9¢

0¢

Brandt Clarke

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Victor Hedman

YesNo

0.4¢

99.6¢

0¢

Miro Heiskanen

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Darnell Nurse

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

Rasmus Sandin

YesNo

0.15¢

99.85¢

0¢

Mattias Ekholm

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Rasmus Dahlin

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

Noah Dobson

YesNo

0.4¢

99.6¢

0¢

Justin Faulk

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Alex Pietrangelo

YesNo

0.1¢

99.9¢

0¢

Kris Letang

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

0¢

Ryker Evans

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Jakob Chychrun

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

Thomas Chabot

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

Thomas Harley

YesNo

0.7¢

99.3¢

0¢

Gustav Forsling

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

Moritz Seider

YesNo

0.2¢

99.8¢

0¢

Rasmus Andersson

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Adam Larsson

YesNo

0.8¢

99.2¢

0¢

Mike Matheson

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

Bowen Byram

YesNo

0.1¢

99.9¢

0¢

Brady Skjei

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

Shea Theodore

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

Jake Walman

YesNo

0.3¢

99.7¢

0¢

Charlie McAvoy

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Noah Hanifin

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Neal Pionk

YesNo

0.9¢

99.1¢

0¢

Josh Morrissey

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Seth Jones

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

Travis Sanheim

YesNo

0.75¢

99.25¢

0¢

Brent Burns

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.13 02:27 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

According to the latest NHL.com Trophy Tracker poll released around March 10-11, 2026, this race is a dead heat. Cale Makar and Zach Werenski are virtually tied in voting points (Makar: 7 first-place votes, 80 points; Werenski: 7 first-place votes, 79 points). While Makar has the incumbent advantage and 'best player' pedigree, Werenski carries the powerful narrative of being the 'Olympic Gold Hero' (assisted the OT winner) and leading Columbus's surprise playoff push. Polymarket's current pricing (Makar ~56.5c vs. Werenski ~36.5c) still places too high a premium on Makar, ignoring the 50/50 split shown in the official writer poll. Werenski's fair value is closer to 45-48c. Hughes and Bouchard are distant trailers in the voting.

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan:

Buy Yes Cale Makar + Buy Yes Zach Werenski

Plan Description:

According to the official poll, these two players secured 14 of the 16 first-place votes. Buying 'Yes' on both costs approximately 93.05c (56.5 + 36.55), returning 100c if either wins. This is a high-probability 'duopoly' strategy. Unless a highly unlikely event occurs (e.g., both get injured or Quinn Hughes has a historic final quarter), this yields a relatively safe return.

Arbitrage: 7¢

Annualized yield: 23.5%

Movers

March 10, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Zach Werenski's price surged from 19c to 36.5c. Reason: NHL.com released its latest Trophy Tracker poll, revealing Werenski had tied Makar in first-place votes (7 to 7), causing the market to realize it had severely undervalued the Olympic hero's chances. March 10, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Evan Bouchard's price crashed from 13.2c to 3.9c. Reason: The same poll showed he has effectively fallen out of the race (receiving minimal votes), leading to a rapid exodus of speculative capital.

Divergence

The main divergence lies in the spread between Makar and Werenski. The prediction market gives Makar a ~20 percentage point lead (56.5% vs 36.5%), yet the latest official NHL writer poll shows them in a virtual dead heat (80 vs 79 voting points). The market is still pricing based on 'reputation' rather than 'current season performance and narrative,' leaving Werenski significantly undervalued.

NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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