All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Republican Party
YesNo
Democratic Party
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 08:42 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Despite the sharp price volatility, fundamentals strongly favor the Democrats. The 2026 midterm election under a Republican (Trump) presidency historically creates a 'Midterm Penalty' that benefits the opposition. Incumbent Gabe Vasquez's reported '25% voting alignment with Trump' actually reinforces his moderate appeal in this swing district (NM-02), improving general election viability even if it creates minor primary jitters. The current price of 55c is significantly undervalued, and the market shows clear pricing inefficiency (summing to only 0.82).
Sign up to view more information
Movers
March 5, 2026 - March 12, 2026, the price of Democratic Party crashed from 73c to 55c. This move likely stems from an overreaction to a March 7th report regarding Vasquez's voting record (voting with Trump 25% of the time), sparking fears of a primary challenge, or simply a liquidity breakdown as the Republican price did not rise correspondingly.
Divergence
Significant divergence and market failure observed. First, the implied probability sum (0.82) is well below 1.00, indicating broken pricing or liquidity issues. Second, the Democratic price of 55c is drastically below the fair value derived from 'Midterm Penalty' and incumbency models (~75-80c), suggesting the market is overly pessimistic about primary risks.
