Number of TSA passengers April 6 - April 12?
Politics|$13.7k Vol|
time2 days 9 hrs

Number of TSA passengers April 6 - April 12? - AI Mispricing Alert

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Last updated: 12 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
17.5-18m(No)
+2.5¢
17-17.5m(Yes)
+0.9¢
>18.5m(Yes)

Number of TSA passengers April 6 - April 12? AI analysis: • +6.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
In the current market, the Yes price for '17.5-18m' has rebounded to around 60c, while '17-17.5m' re...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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TX-31 House Election Winner
Politics|$12.1k Vol|
time207 days 9 hrs

TX-31 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+10¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
TX-31 is a solid Republican stronghold in Texas (Cook PVI R+13.7), covering Williamson and Bell coun...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Divergence
The market currently prices a Republican victory at around 85.5c, whereas mainstream political analysis and historical election results indicate TX-31 is an extremely safe Republican seat (implied probability >95%). This divergence is primarily due to the 'long-tail risk overpricing' often seen in prediction markets, rather than a genuine disagreement on political fundamentals.
AI Analysis
FIFA World Cup Group D Winner
Soccer|$19.7k Vol|
time78 days 9 hrs

FIFA World Cup Group D Winner

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR(No)
+6.5¢
USA(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As a Pot 1 seed and host nation, the USMNT enjoys structural home-field advantages and schedule bene...
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AI Analysis
Anime Awards: Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (English) Winner
Culture|$19.0k Vol|
time43 days 9 hrs

Anime Awards: Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (English) Winner

Top Undervalued
+30.5¢
Alexis Tipton as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc)(No)
+23¢
Paul Castro Jr. as Hikaru Indou (The Summer Hikaru Died)(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of the 'Yes' prices for all options in the current market is 2.66 (266%), which drastically ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
This is an award prediction for a specific entertainment vertical (English anime voice acting). While highly popular among anime fans, it remains relatively niche for the general public and traditional prediction market participants.
AI Analysis
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Weather|$315.7k Vol|
time265 days 9 hrs

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+15.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market pricing (~34%) remains significantly higher than the climatological base rate. Hi...
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Hedging
Crude Oil
If a Category 4 hurricane makes landfall in the US (especially in the Gulf of Mexico), Crude Oil and Natural Gas prices typically spike due to anticipated supply disruptions (Impact Score 3). Additionally, stocks of P&C insurance companies (e.g., Travelers, Allstate) and offshore drilling/refining firms (e.g., Marathon Oil) would face direct negative impacts. This acts as a standard hedge for real-world financial markets.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between the market-implied probability (34%) and the climatological consensus of meteorological experts (15%-20%). Retail traders are often influenced by recency bias from recent extreme weather events, systematically overestimating the true probability of such catastrophic tail-risk events. Without strong forecasts for a La Niña or anomalously high Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) to justify it, the 34% probability appears overly pessimistic.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
17.5-18m
YesNo
61.5¢
38.5¢
55¢
45¢
+6.5¢
17-17.5m
YesNo
32.5¢
67.5¢
35¢
65¢
+2.5¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026: The price of '17.5-18m' surged from 36c to 59.5c, while '17-17.5m' plummeted from 62c to 34c. This was likely driven by the market receiving updated daily TSA passenger data, suggesting the total volume is more likely to reach the higher 17.5M+ bracket. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026: The price of '17-17.5m' surged from 17.5c to 33.5c. This was likely driven by the release of early data or adjusted expectations suggesting that passenger volumes might be slightly lower than the initial high estimates (17.5-18m). April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of '17.5-18m' surged from 53c to 76c, while '16.5-17m' plummeted from 37.5c to 16c, and '18-18.5m' dropped from 45.5c to 20c. This was driven by traders updating their forecast models for post-Easter travel, consolidating capital into the most probable 17.5-18M bracket.

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