All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
18-18.5m
YesNo
<17.5m
YesNo
17.5-18m
YesNo
18.5-19m
YesNo
19-19.5m
YesNo
>19.5m
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 21:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The actual TSA throughput for Monday, March 16, was 2.475M, a significant drop from the previous week's 2.563M, driven by severe winter storms (>4,800 flight cancellations) and the partial government shutdown. Macro data indicates that recent daily throughputs (e.g., March 11-12) are trending 4%-12% *below* 2025 levels, directly contradicting 'record-breaking' media narratives. With Tuesday (March 17) seeing another >1,000 cancellations and shutdown-related friction (long wait times) dampening demand, the weekly total is highly likely to slide below the 2025 baseline of 18.25M. The model projects a finish between 17.4M and 17.9M, making the <17.5m and 17.5-18m brackets significantly undervalued.
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Movers
From 2026-03-16 to 2026-03-17, the price of the 18-18.5m option surged from 56.5c to a peak of 79.5c before settling around 70c. This move occurred as confirmed reports of severe snowstorms and thousands of Monday flight cancellations forced the market to abandon 'record-breaking growth' (>18.5m) scenarios, causing capital to panic-buy the 'conservative baseline' bracket. Simultaneously, the 19-19.5m option crashed from 34c to 1c, signaling the total collapse of high-growth expectations.
From 2026-03-15 to 2026-03-16, the price of the 19-19.5m option crashed from 34c to 3.5c, and the >19.5m option fell from 17c to 3.5c, as the market priced in news of the 'government shutdown' and 'flight cancellations', realizing that the previously projected 'record-breaking' growth is no longer feasible.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media and industry groups (e.g., Airlines for America) have been hyping a 'record-breaking spring break' with projected 4% YoY growth. However, actual high-frequency data (daily TSA throughput) reveals a 4% to 12% YoY *decline* driven by the government shutdown and severe weather. While the prediction market has priced out the extreme growth scenarios, it is still incorrectly anchored to a 'flat/slight growth' outcome (18-18.5m), ignoring the reality that the actual trend has turned negative.
