Mandatory Task: Access the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the current Order Book depth and bid-ask spread. Combining this with the recent daily passenger volume trends released by the TSA, assess whether the current odds for the brackets (especially 2.2M-2.4M and 2.4M-2.6M) reflect fair value, and identify any arbitrage opportunities or liquidity risks.

AI-powered analysis for: Mandatory Task: Access the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the current Order Book depth and bid-ask spread. Combining this with the recent daily passenger volume trends released by the TSA, assess whether the current odds for the brackets (especially 2.2M-2.4M and 2.4M-2.6M) reflect fair value, and identify any arbitrage opportunities or liquidity risks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Use Google Search and the official TSA website to query passenger volume data for the past few weeks (especially Thursdays in March) and historical data for the same period in 2025. Confirm if there are obvious seasonal trends or recent news of passenger surges due to Spring Break.

AI-powered analysis for: Use Google Search and the official TSA website to query passenger volume data for the past few weeks (especially Thursdays in March) and historical data for the same period in 2025. Confirm if there are obvious seasonal trends or recent news of passenger surges due to Spring Break.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for US air travel news specifically for March 19, focusing on potential mass flight cancellations (due to severe weather or system outages), major airline strikes, or sudden public health emergencies, as these are the factors most likely to cause the actual number to drop into the <2.0M bracket.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for US air travel news specifically for March 19, focusing on potential mass flight cancellations (due to severe weather or system outages), major airline strikes, or sudden public health emergencies, as these are the factors most likely to cause the actual number to drop into the <2.0M bracket.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Explain like I'm 5: What exactly does 'TSA daily checkpoint throughput' mean in this prediction market? If the data for March 19 isn't published by April 30, or if the TSA revises the numbers, who actually wins this bet?

AI-powered analysis for: Explain like I'm 5: What exactly does 'TSA daily checkpoint throughput' mean in this prediction market? If the data for March 19 isn't published by April 30, or if the TSA revises the numbers, who actually wins this bet?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Check major airline earnings call transcripts or industry analysis reports to confirm capacity deployment and booking outlooks for the mid-March 2026 Spring Break period. Use this to verify if the market's expectation for high-volume options like '>2.8M' is overly optimistic.

AI-powered analysis for: Check major airline earnings call transcripts or industry analysis reports to confirm capacity deployment and booking outlooks for the mid-March 2026 Spring Break period. Use this to verify if the market's expectation for high-volume options like '>2.8M' is overly optimistic.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search historical data to calculate the actual frequency of TSA passenger volumes falling into the '2.4M-2.6M' bracket on Thursdays over the past year. Does the current market pricing show a significant deviation from this historical frequency?

AI-powered analysis for: Search historical data to calculate the actual frequency of TSA passenger volumes falling into the '2.4M-2.6M' bracket on Thursdays over the past year. Does the current market pricing show a significant deviation from this historical frequency?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Reverse thinking: Search for arguments on 'why Spring 2026 travel demand might be soft' and list the Top 3 bearish reasons (e.g., recession fears, soaring ticket prices) that could cause passenger numbers to miss expectations, breaking the echo chamber of a guaranteed Spring Break surge.

AI-powered analysis for: Reverse thinking: Search for arguments on 'why Spring 2026 travel demand might be soft' and list the Top 3 bearish reasons (e.g., recession fears, soaring ticket prices) that could cause passenger numbers to miss expectations, breaking the echo chamber of a guaranteed Spring Break surge.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Check the specific timing pattern of TSA website data releases (usually what time the next day?). Confirm the earliest possible time the March 19 data will be visible, and assess if there is a significant 'front-running' advantage to entering the market minutes before the release.

AI-powered analysis for: Check the specific timing pattern of TSA website data releases (usually what time the next day?). Confirm the earliest possible time the March 19 data will be visible, and assess if there is a significant 'front-running' advantage to entering the market minutes before the release.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search Reddit or aviation enthusiast forums (like FlyerTalk) for historical disputes regarding TSA data counting methodologies, especially discussions on how 'cross-midnight flights' or 're-screening' are counted. Are there rule pitfalls here that could flip the result?

AI-powered analysis for: Search Reddit or aviation enthusiast forums (like FlyerTalk) for historical disputes regarding TSA data counting methodologies, especially discussions on how 'cross-midnight flights' or 're-screening' are counted. Are there rule pitfalls here that could flip the result?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the fact that March 19 is a Thursday, compare the traffic difference between Thursdays vs. Fridays/Sundays in the past year. Analyze if Thursday is typically a weekly travel trough to infer the likelihood of the lower '2.0M-2.2M' bracket occurring.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the fact that March 19 is a Thursday, compare the traffic difference between Thursdays vs. Fridays/Sundays in the past year. Analyze if Thursday is typically a weekly travel trough to infer the likelihood of the lower '2.0M-2.2M' bracket occurring.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Browse Twitter for recent on-the-ground observations of US airport congestion from well-known aviation analysts (like @Jamie_Lane or travel bloggers) regarding March travel, and summarize their bullish or bearish sentiment.

AI-powered analysis for: Browse Twitter for recent on-the-ground observations of US airport congestion from well-known aviation analysts (like @Jamie_Lane or travel bloggers) regarding March travel, and summarize their bullish or bearish sentiment.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Qualitatively assess the current risk-reward ratio: Given that TSA data typically has low volatility and high predictability, is betting on the popular bracket currently 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds), or has Spring Break uncertainty turned it into 'buying a lottery ticket'?

AI-powered analysis for: Qualitatively assess the current risk-reward ratio: Given that TSA data typically has low volatility and high predictability, is betting on the popular bracket currently 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds), or has Spring Break uncertainty turned it into 'buying a lottery ticket'?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Analyze the impact of time decay (Theta) on the 'No' side: If there is no news of severe weather or flight cancellations before March 19, which extreme bracket's (e.g., 2.8M) 'No' option will profit fastest as time passes?

AI-powered analysis for: Analyze the impact of time decay (Theta) on the 'No' side: If there is no news of severe weather or flight cancellations before March 19, which extreme bracket's (e.g., 2.8M) 'No' option will profit fastest as time passes?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for historical fractals from the same period in 2019 and 2024. Compare if the current TSA data growth curve matches the pre-pandemic or last year's recovery curve to help judge if this number will break historical highs.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for historical fractals from the same period in 2019 and 2024. Compare if the current TSA data growth curve matches the pre-pandemic or last year's recovery curve to help judge if this number will break historical highs.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Extreme bottom projection: Logically project if TSA data would fall below 2.0M assuming a massive blizzard hits the US East Coast on March 19, paralyzing major hub airports, and assess if the market is underestimating the probability of this scenario.

AI-powered analysis for: Extreme bottom projection: Logically project if TSA data would fall below 2.0M assuming a massive blizzard hits the US East Coast on March 19, paralyzing major hub airports, and assess if the market is underestimating the probability of this scenario.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Calculate the opportunity cost of capital: If I lock up funds until April (considering potential data delays or disputes) for this 10% potential return, is this trade worth it compared to earning risk-free yields in DeFi protocols?

AI-powered analysis for: Calculate the opportunity cost of capital: If I lock up funds until April (considering potential data delays or disputes) for this 10% potential return, is this trade worth it compared to earning risk-free yields in DeFi protocols?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Set a stop-loss red line: Suggest a core fundamental indicator (e.g., flight cancellation rate on FlightAware exceeding X%) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate exit from bullish positions to stop losses.

AI-powered analysis for: Set a stop-loss red line: Suggest a core fundamental indicator (e.g., flight cancellation rate on FlightAware exceeding X%) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate exit from bullish positions to stop losses.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Kelly Criterion sizing recommendation: Assuming your historical data model calculates a 60% win rate for a certain bracket (e.g., 2.4M-2.6M), while market odds imply only 40%, what percentage of your portfolio should you allocate to this option according to the Kelly Criterion?

AI-powered analysis for: Kelly Criterion sizing recommendation: Assuming your historical data model calculates a 60% win rate for a certain bracket (e.g., 2.4M-2.6M), while market odds imply only 40%, what percentage of your portfolio should you allocate to this option according to the Kelly Criterion?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the current bid-ask spread, provide an optimal Limit Order strategy: At what price should you place an order to get a better entry than the market price without losing too much chance of being filled?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the current bid-ask spread, provide an optimal Limit Order strategy: At what price should you place an order to get a better entry than the market price without losing too much chance of being filled?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Micro-capital 'lottery' strategy: For a user with only $10, which high-payout but not impossible underdog option (e.g., >2.8M) would you recommend buying to bet on explosive Spring Break growth?

AI-powered analysis for: Micro-capital 'lottery' strategy: For a user with only $10, which high-payout but not impossible underdog option (e.g., >2.8M) would you recommend buying to bet on explosive Spring Break growth?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$23 Vol|

6 hrs 5 mins

Number of TSA Passengers March 19? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

>2.8M

YesNo

52.5¢

47.5¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+42.5¢

2.6M-2.8M

YesNo

41.5¢

58.5¢

75¢

25¢

+33.5¢

0¢

2.4M-2.6M

YesNo

18.5¢

81.5¢

14¢

86¢

0¢

+4.5¢

2.0M-2.2M

YesNo

3.55¢

96.45¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+3.5¢

<2.0M

YesNo

2.6¢

97.4¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.6¢

2.2M-2.4M

YesNo

3.55¢

96.45¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+2.5¢

AI Insights:

9 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on TSA data from early March 2026 (Sunday, March 8 recorded 2.78M) and historical Thursday-to-Sunday volume ratios (Thursdays are typically 94%-98% of peak Sundays), the throughput for Thursday, March 19 is highly likely to fall within the 2.70M-2.78M range. While the equivalent date in 2024 (March 21) was 2.69M, exceeding 2.8M (surpassing the Sunday peak) on a non-Easter-weekend Thursday is statistically improbable. The market significantly overvalues '>2.8M', while '2.6M-2.8M' represents the fundamental fair value.

Sign up to view more information

Exotics

This is a niche market. While air travel data is a public economic indicator, betting on the specific passenger count for a single day is relatively obscure for the general public, typically of interest only to traders tracking high-frequency macro data.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. The market prices '>2.8M' at 50%, implying Thursday volume will exceed the recent Spring Break Sunday peak (2.78M on Mar 8). Historical data shows Thursday volumes typically trail Sundays. Model analysis places the true probability heavily in the '2.6M-2.8M' range; market sentiment is irrationally bullish on record-breaking volume.

Number of TSA Passengers March 19? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner