Retrieve the latest TSA passenger throughput numbers for the past 7 days (March 10-16, 2026) to establish a current traffic baseline, analyze the Polymarket order book depth and spread given the negligible $11.25 volume, and assess which bracket (e.g., 2.6M-2.8M) represents undervalued fair value based on Spring Break travel trends.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest TSA passenger throughput numbers for the past 7 days (March 10-16, 2026) to establish a current traffic baseline, analyze the Polymarket order book depth and spread given the negligible $11.25 volume, and assess which bracket (e.g., 2.6M-2.8M) represents undervalued fair value based on Spring Break travel trends.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for historical TSA passenger data for the third Saturday of March (corresponding to peak Spring Break) in 2023, 2024, and 2025 to calculate the average year-over-year growth rate, and verify whether the historical probability of daily volume exceeding 3.0M or falling below 2.4M supports the current odds distribution.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for historical TSA passenger data for the third Saturday of March (corresponding to peak Spring Break) in 2023, 2024, and 2025 to calculate the average year-over-year growth rate, and verify whether the historical probability of daily volume exceeding 3.0M or falling below 2.4M supports the current odds distribution.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for weather forecasts and potential strike news for major US aviation hubs (e.g., ATL, ORD, DFW, JFK) for the weekend of March 21, 2026, to analyze if there are downside catalysts that could cause mass flight cancellations and significantly suppress the TSA checkpoint count (e.g., into the <2.4M bracket).

AI-powered analysis for: Search for weather forecasts and potential strike news for major US aviation hubs (e.g., ATL, ORD, DFW, JFK) for the weekend of March 21, 2026, to analyze if there are downside catalysts that could cause mass flight cancellations and significantly suppress the TSA checkpoint count (e.g., into the <2.4M bracket).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

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Number of TSA Passengers March 21? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

2.4M-2.6M

YesNo

59¢

41¢

75¢

25¢

+16¢

0¢

2.6M-2.8M

YesNo

28¢

72¢

19¢

81¢

0¢

+9¢

<2.4M

YesNo

12¢

88¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+7¢

2.8M-3.0M

YesNo

2.85¢

97.15¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.8¢

3.0M-3.2M

YesNo

1.15¢

98.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.1¢

>3.2M

YesNo

0.4¢

99.6¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.4¢

AI Insights:

03.17 22:48 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on recent TSA data for mid-March 2026 (approx. 2.78M on Thursday, Mar 12) and historical trends where Saturdays typically see 85-90% of Friday/Sunday peak volumes, the traffic for Saturday, March 21 is projected to fall comfortably within the 2.4M-2.6M range. Given that the all-time TSA daily record is only ~3.1M (June 2025), the probability of '>3.2M' is statistically negligible. The current market pricing for '>3.2M' at 40 cents is completely detached from reality.

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Divergence

Significant divergence between market pricing and reality. Specifically, the '>3.2M' option is priced at 40 cents, implying a 40% probability, whereas mainstream aviation data and historical records suggest the probability of this occurring on a Saturday is near 0%. This divergence is likely due to liquidity illiquidity or irrational initial AMM settings.

Number of TSA Passengers March 21? - AI Odds Analysis

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