Retrieve the latest information and visit the Polymarket page for the 'Number of TSA Passengers March 22?' event to analyze the Order Book, specifically assessing the bid-ask spread risk given the negligible volume ($11.25) and determining if current odds deviate from recent TSA throughput trends.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest information and visit the Polymarket page for the 'Number of TSA Passengers March 22?' event to analyze the Order Book, specifically assessing the bid-ask spread risk given the negligible volume ($11.25) and determining if current odds deviate from recent TSA throughput trends.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search historical TSA checkpoint travel numbers for late March from 2023 to 2025, specifically isolating data for 'Sundays' during the Spring Break peak, to calculate the historical frequency of daily passenger counts exceeding 2.9M or 3.1M.

AI-powered analysis for: Search historical TSA checkpoint travel numbers for late March from 2023 to 2025, specifically isolating data for 'Sundays' during the Spring Break peak, to calculate the historical frequency of daily passenger counts exceeding 2.9M or 3.1M.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low liquidity of this market, calculate an optimal limit order placement strategy (Stink Bid) for high-probability brackets like '2.9M-3.1M' or '>3.3M' to secure a favorable entry price without suffering from high slippage costs.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low liquidity of this market, calculate an optimal limit order placement strategy (Stink Bid) for high-probability brackets like '2.9M-3.1M' or '>3.3M' to secure a favorable entry price without suffering from high slippage costs.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

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Number of TSA Passengers March 22? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

2.7M-2.9M

YesNo

60¢

40¢

60¢

0¢

+20¢

2.9M-3.1M

YesNo

34¢

66¢

45¢

55¢

+11¢

0¢

<2.5M

YesNo

11.05¢

88.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+10.1¢

3.1M-3.3M

YesNo

2.4¢

97.6¢

8¢

92¢

+5.6¢

0¢

2.5M-2.7M

YesNo

10¢

90¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+5¢

>3.3M

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

1¢

99¢

+0.4¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.17 22:59 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on historical data, mid-March Sundays (e.g., March 24, 2024) typically see TSA volume around 2.75M. Assuming moderate annual growth of 3-5% from 2024-2026, the projected volume for March 22, 2026, falls in the 2.9M-3.0M range, making '2.9M-3.1M' the fundamentally strongest option. The market's extreme pricing of '2.7M-2.9M' (87.5c) appears overly conservative, ignoring growth trends, while the pricing for '>3.3M' (40c) is irrational given that even all-time summer records historically hover around 3.1M.

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Divergence

There is significant internal divergence in market pricing. The high price for '2.7M-2.9M' (87.5c) implies an expectation of flat volume (close to 2024 levels), while the high price for '>3.3M' (40.5c) implies an unprecedented surge. This contradictory pricing aligns with neither internal logic nor the mainstream media narrative of 'record-breaking travel demand' (which would favor the 2.9M-3.1M range), indicating a disordered market.

Number of TSA Passengers March 22? - AI Odds Analysis

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