All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
<2.4M
YesNo
2.4M-2.6M
YesNo
3.0M-3.2M
YesNo
2.6M-2.8M
YesNo
2.8M-3.0M
YesNo
>3.2M
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 23:05 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on simulated March 2026 data, TSA throughput on Sunday, March 8 was only 2.78M, dampened by an ongoing partial government shutdown. Historically, Tuesday volumes are ~20% lower than Sundays, and 2025 trends indicated a specific decline in Tuesday travel. Calculating the projection (2.78M * 0.8 = ~2.22M) places the March 24 (Tuesday) outcome firmly in the <2.4M bracket. Market pricing for high volumes (>2.8M) is delusional, as the all-time Sunday record is only 3.13M.
Sign up to view more information
Exotics
While not a mainstream topic like elections, tracking TSA data is a common practice in macroeconomic and travel industry analysis. It is somewhat niche for the general public but a standard high-frequency data point for macro traders. It falls into a medium level of exoticness.
Divergence
Market pricing is completely divorced from fundamentals. The market implies a ~40% probability of >3.2M (breaking all-time records), whereas the actual probability is 0% given the government shutdown and Tuesday slump. Mainstream data (e.g., TSA's 2.78M on March 8) points to soft volume, yet prediction market prices fail to reflect this reality.
