NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics|$10.6k Vol|
time50 days 20 hrs

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 00:00
Top Undervalued
+2¢
Dan Goldman(No)
+1.5¢
Brad Lander(No)
+0.9¢
Alexa Avilés(Yes)

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner AI analysis: • +2¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than two months until the NY-10 Democratic primary, Brad Lander remains the clear frontrun...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Moscow on May 3?
Weather|$21.0k Vol|
time8 hrs 13 mins

Highest temperature in Moscow on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+20.5¢
20°C(No)
+14¢
21°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current weather forecasts for Moscow (Vnukovo Airport) on May 3 mostly place the high temperature be...
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AI Analysis
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
Politics|$39.1k Vol|
time89 days 20 hrs

SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?

Top Undervalued
+3¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Over the past few days, the market price has stabilized in the 68.5c to 72.5c range. Given the conse...
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AI Analysis
Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?
Finance|$14.7k Vol|
time2 days 20 hrs

Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?

Top Undervalued
+4¢
3.6B(Yes)
+0.5¢
3.2B(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current market trends and previous analysis, Uber's Q1 trip count faces a seasonal dip but ...
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Hedging
UBER
Uber's total number of trips is a key operational metric measuring the growth of its rideshare and delivery businesses. The outcome will directly impact Uber's stock price upon earnings release and may have a minor spillover effect on key competitors like Lyft.
Movers
Between 2026-04-29 and 2026-05-02, the price of the 3.6B option climbed from 58c to 71.5c, indicating that as the earnings date approaches, market participants have regained further confidence in hitting 3.6 billion trips. Between 2026-04-29 and 2026-04-30, the price of the 3.6B option recovered from 54c to 61c, likely because market participants reassessed the seasonal dip or received new unofficial data clues, restoring some probability of crossing 3.6 billion trips. Between 2026-04-27 and 2026-04-28, the YES price for the 3.6B option plunged from 87.5c to 51.5c. This was likely due to market participants revising their Q1 seasonal dip estimates downwards as the earnings release approaches, significantly reducing the perceived probability of crossing 3.6 billion trips. Between 2026-04-27 and 2026-04-28, the 4.4B and 4.6B options experienced anomalous price spikes (to 5.45c and 6.0c respectively), likely caused by poorly executed trades by inexperienced market participants in a low-liquidity environment.
AI Analysis
Blue wave in 2026?
Politics|$39.8k Vol|
time210 days 20 hrs

Blue wave in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+1¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price (84.5c) is very close to fair valuation and stably reflects the general rul...
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Hedging
S&P 500
US 10Y Yield
If Democrats achieve a 'Blue Wave' in the 2026 midterms (controlling the House and maintaining strong Senate positioning), it typically implies potential for increased government spending or a stricter regulatory environment. This impacts treasury yields (fiscal deficit expectations) and equity sectors (healthcare, energy, tech regulation). Especially if the sitting President is Republican, a flip in Congress control introduces gridlock risks or policy shifts. While midterm impact is usually less than general elections, it is sufficient to cause medium-level volatility in broad indices and yields.
AI Analysis
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?
Elections|$52.5k Vol|
time57 days 20 hrs

Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+3.3¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The likelihood of Kamala Harris officially announcing a 2028 presidential run by June 30, 2026 (prio...
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Movers
April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' spiked from 11.9c to 21.05c and then dropped back to 10.9c, driven by short-term speculative hype before quickly cooling off and returning to fundamentals. February 10, 2026 - February 11, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' retraced from 6.6c to 5.65c as the market realized the Feb 5th 'Headquarters' launch was a 2026 midterm mobilization tool, not a presidential bid, cooling speculative hype. February 4, 2026 - February 6, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rose (~0.5c) triggered by Harris's video release and 'Headquarters' rebrand, which sparked brief speculation of an imminent announcement.
Divergence
The market price (~9 cents) is significantly higher than the actual probability of occurrence (<2%). Mainstream media and political analysts widely agree that she will not announce a run before the 2026 midterms, meaning the current price is heavily overvalued by speculators and hedgers.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Dan Goldman
YesNo
17¢
83¢
15¢
85¢
+2¢
Brad Lander
YesNo
83.5¢
16.5¢
82¢
18¢
+1.5¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 27, 2026 - April 29, 2026, Yuh-Line Niou's price spiked abnormally to 47.7c (before dropping back), and Dan Goldman's price temporarily surged from 13c to 32c. This was likely due to short-term rumors, unexpected polling whispers, or anomalous large trades in a low-liquidity environment, as prices quickly reverted to fundamentals within 24 hours. April 8, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the market remained stable overall, with no drastic fluctuations exceeding 10c. Brad Lander's price stabilized between 82.5c and 86c, while Dan Goldman's price fluctuated slightly between 10.5c and 13c. March 24, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the market entered a smooth consolidation phase. Brad Lander's price drifted from 79.5c to 76.5c, while Dan Goldman's price crept up from 17c to 20c. Neither triggered a >10c volatile move, reflecting standard expectation adjustments. March 10, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Dan Goldman's price drifted down from 19c to 11c, showing a sustained decline that indicates evaporating market confidence in his ability to recover; meanwhile, Brad Lander stabilized at a high of 82c-83c, further solidifying his frontrunner status. This week's movement reflects undecided support accelerating toward the leader as the primary nears. Feb 20, 2026 - Feb 26, 2026, the market remained extremely calm, with price fluctuations for main candidates Brad Lander (holding ~75c) and Dan Goldman (holding ~21c) staying under 5 cents. The market appears to have fully digested the initial impact of Lander's entry and is awaiting new catalysts from the primary season. Late 2025 - Early 2026, Brad Lander's price experienced a decisive surge driven by his official campaign announcement and endorsements from newly elected Mayor Mamdani and Bernie Sanders, confirming the consolidation of progressive forces in NY-10.

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