[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest developments for the NY-11 district (Staten Island/South Brooklyn) and visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth. Given this is for the 2026 midterms, is the current liquidity ($3186) sufficient for meaningful entry? Is there significant mispricing or a liquidity premium due to the long time horizon?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest developments for the NY-11 district (Staten Island/South Brooklyn) and visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth. Given this is for the 2026 midterms, is the current liquidity ($3186) sufficient for meaningful entry? Is there significant mispricing or a liquidity premium due to the long time horizon?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency & Redistricting Impact: Search for the voting results and margins of victory in NY-11 over the last three election cycles (2020, 2022, 2024). Has the district's boundary changed significantly due to New York redistricting in a way that favors the GOP or Dems? What is the reelection track record of the incumbent (e.g., Nicole Malliotakis)?

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency & Redistricting Impact: Search for the voting results and margins of victory in NY-11 over the last three election cycles (2020, 2022, 2024). Has the district's boundary changed significantly due to New York redistricting in a way that favors the GOP or Dems? What is the reelection track record of the incumbent (e.g., Nicole Malliotakis)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate the break-even requirement if you lock up funds in this market until Nov 4, 2026 (approx. 20 months), compared to putting the same capital into DeFi protocols or US Treasuries (assuming 4-5% APY). Does the current implied probability offer enough excess return to justify this long-term capital lock-up?

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate the break-even requirement if you lock up funds in this market until Nov 4, 2026 (approx. 20 months), compared to putting the same capital into DeFi protocols or US Treasuries (assuming 4-5% APY). Does the current implied probability offer enough excess return to justify this long-term capital lock-up?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$3,121 Vol|

228 days 11 hrs

NY-11 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican Party

YesNo

82¢

18¢

85¢

15¢

+3¢

0¢

Democratic Party

YesNo

13.5¢

86.5¢

15¢

85¢

+1.5¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.08 17:28 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The dramatic price surge for the Republican option from the 40c range to the 80c range between March...

Sign up to view more information

Movers

March 5, 2026 - March 6, 2026: The price of the Republican Party fluctuated significantly between 0.875c and 0.77c (volatility > 10c). This instability was caused by price discovery, profit-taking, and position readjustment by traders digesting the major bullish news. March 2, 2026 - March 5, 2026: The Republican Party price skyrocketed from 39.5c to 83c (with a corresponding crash for the Democrats). The reason is the removal of redistricting legal risks (e.g., court upholding the existing map), effectively shifting the seat from 'Toss-up' to 'Likely Republican'.

NY-11 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner