[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the low volume (~$1,863) in the NY-21 market, analyze the slippage risk caused by wide bid-ask spreads; combine this with the district's historical data (Cook PVI R+8) and incumbent Elise Stefanik's strength to assess if current odds reflect a liquidity-driven mispricing.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the low volume (~$1,863) in the NY-21 market, analyze the slippage risk caused by wide bid-ask spreads; combine this with the district's historical data (Cook PVI R+8) and incumbent Elise Stefanik's strength to assess if current odds reflect a liquidity-driven mispricing.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] [General] Key Players Mining: Search for "Elise Stefanik 2026 plans" or "Trump Cabinet picks Stefanik" to verify rumors of the incumbent leaving for a Cabinet position or higher office. If this becomes an "Open Seat," how does that structurally alter the probability of a Democratic upset even in this Republican-leaning district?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] [General] Key Players Mining: Search for "Elise Stefanik 2026 plans" or "Trump Cabinet picks Stefanik" to verify rumors of the incumbent leaving for a Cabinet position or higher office. If this becomes an "Open Seat," how does that structurally alter the probability of a Democratic upset even in this Republican-leaning district?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Since this market resolves in Nov 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital for ~2 years. Does the annualized ROI of betting on the favorite (Republican) significantly outperform the risk-free yield of holding USDC in Aave or Treasuries over the same period?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Since this market resolves in Nov 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital for ~2 years. Does the annualized ROI of betting on the favorite (Republican) significantly outperform the risk-free yield of holding USDC in Aave or Treasuries over the same period?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

NY-21 House Election Winner

Politics|$22.9k Vol|

183 days 11 hrs

NY-21 House Election Winner - AI Found +24.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.24 05:03

Top Undervalued

+24.5¢

Republican Party(Yes)

+22.5¢

Democratic Party(No)

NY-21 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +24.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

NY-21 has a partisan lean of R+10 and is rated 'Solid Republican' by authoritative forecasters. Alth...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican Party

YesNo

65.5¢

34.5¢

90¢

10¢

+24.5¢

0¢

Democratic Party

YesNo

32.5¢

67.5¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+22.5¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Divergence

The current market prices the GOP's chances of winning NY-21 at merely 58%, while mainstream political analysts (e.g., Cook Political Report) still rate it as 'Solid Republican' with an implied win probability well over 90%. This extreme pricing divergence likely stems from the prediction market's overreaction to the uncertainty of an open seat, midterm dynamics, and low liquidity.