[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the low volume (~$1,863) in the NY-21 market, analyze the slippage risk caused by wide bid-ask spreads; combine this with the district's historical data (Cook PVI R+8) and incumbent Elise Stefanik's strength to assess if current odds reflect a liquidity-driven mispricing.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the low volume (~$1,863) in the NY-21 market, analyze the slippage risk caused by wide bid-ask spreads; combine this with the district's historical data (Cook PVI R+8) and incumbent Elise Stefanik's strength to assess if current odds reflect a liquidity-driven mispricing.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] [General] Key Players Mining: Search for "Elise Stefanik 2026 plans" or "Trump Cabinet picks Stefanik" to verify rumors of the incumbent leaving for a Cabinet position or higher office. If this becomes an "Open Seat," how does that structurally alter the probability of a Democratic upset even in this Republican-leaning district?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] [General] Key Players Mining: Search for "Elise Stefanik 2026 plans" or "Trump Cabinet picks Stefanik" to verify rumors of the incumbent leaving for a Cabinet position or higher office. If this becomes an "Open Seat," how does that structurally alter the probability of a Democratic upset even in this Republican-leaning district?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Since this market resolves in Nov 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital for ~2 years. Does the annualized ROI of betting on the favorite (Republican) significantly outperform the risk-free yield of holding USDC in Aave or Treasuries over the same period?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Since this market resolves in Nov 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital for ~2 years. Does the annualized ROI of betting on the favorite (Republican) significantly outperform the risk-free yield of holding USDC in Aave or Treasuries over the same period?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$1,803 Vol|

228 days 15 hrs

NY-21 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican Party

YesNo

79¢

21¢

92¢

8¢

+13¢

0¢

Democratic Party

YesNo

17.5¢

82.5¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+9.5¢

AI Insights:

03.08 17:31 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

NY-21 is an R+10 'Solid Republican' district. Although incumbent Elise Stefanik announced in late 20...

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Movers

March 6, 2026 - March 8, 2026, the Republican Party price dropped significantly from 83.5c to 73.5c. There was no major breaking negative news (such as scandals or polling collapses) targeting the GOP candidate in this district. This drop is likely driven by a liquidity crunch in the prediction market causing a price impact from a single large sell order, or an overreaction to 'Open Seat' uncertainty. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, prices remained flat at Republican 86.5c / Democratic 11.5c. The market has fully digested the news of Elise Stefanik's retirement from late 2025, resulting in a period of stability.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political analysis (e.g., Cook Political Report) rates NY-21 as 'Solid Republican' (implying >90% win probability), whereas the prediction market price implies only a ~73.5% chance. The market pricing has detached from fundamentals, significantly underestimating Republican dominance in this deep red district.

NY-21 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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