[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume (~$287), retrieve the latest partisan ratings (e.g., Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) for NY-22. Analyze whether the current order book spread reflects the true fundamental 'swing' nature of the district or is simply a result of illiquidity pricing distortion.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume (~$287), retrieve the latest partisan ratings (e.g., Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) for NY-22. Analyze whether the current order book spread reflects the true fundamental 'swing' nature of the district or is simply a result of illiquidity pricing distortion.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Players Mining: Identify the current incumbent for NY-22 and their status for the 2026 cycle. Specifically, search for news regarding retirement rumors, legal issues, or declared high-profile challengers, as individual candidate quality historically outweighs party affiliation in this specific swing district.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Players Mining: Identify the current incumbent for NY-22 and their status for the 2026 cycle. Specifically, search for news regarding retirement rumors, legal issues, or declared high-profile challengers, as individual candidate quality historically outweighs party affiliation in this specific swing district.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Since this market resolves in November 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital for this duration. Compare the implied ROI of the current odds against the risk-free yield of holding stablecoins in DeFi protocols (approx. 4-5% APY) to determine if the trade offers positive expected value.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Since this market resolves in November 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital for this duration. Compare the implied ROI of the current odds against the risk-free yield of holding stablecoins in DeFi protocols (approx. 4-5% APY) to determine if the trade offers positive expected value.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$287 Vol|

230 days 1 hrs

NY-22 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Democratic Party

YesNo

75.5¢

24.5¢

92¢

8¢

+16.5¢

0¢

Republican Party

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+4.5¢

AI Insights:

03.12 10:34 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Despite a lack of breaking news this week, the fundamentals for NY-22 remain robust. Incumbent Democrat John Mannion won decisively in 2024 in this D+4 district. Crucially, 2026 is a midterm election under a Republican presidency (Trump), a scenario that historically heavily favors the opposition party (Democrats). Mainstream analysts typically rate such seats as 'Safe Democrat,' implying a >90% probability. The current market price is significantly undervalued, reflecting capital inefficiency rather than a shift in election dynamics.

Sign up to view more information

Divergence

There is a significant divergence between market price and fundamentals. Based on a 'Safe Democrat' seat rating, the fair price should be >90c, whereas it is currently trading at 76.5c. This divergence is not driven by disagreement on the winner, but by structural market inefficiency—evidenced by the fact that even an 11% risk-free arbitrage gap (combined price 89c) remains unfilled by market capital.

NY-22 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner