All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Hakeem Jeffries
YesNo
Vance Bostic
YesNo
Chi Ossé
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 06:45 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Per market rules, if no NY-08 Democratic Primary takes place (i.e., the incumbent runs unopposed), the market resolves to 'Other', rendering the 'Hakeem Jeffries' option worthless ($0). Current dynamics indicate: 1. Formidable challenger Chi Ossé, despite initial filings, was denied the NYC-DSA endorsement in Nov 2025 and has effectively paused his campaign without active petitioning; 2. Grassroots challenger Vance Bostic lacks the organizational infrastructure to survive New York's rigorous petitioning process (Feb 24 - April 2, 2026). Without institutional backing to gather ~3,000 raw signatures to withstand legal challenges from Jeffries' powerful machine, Bostic is highly likely to be disqualified. Consequently, the primary is likely to be canceled under NY election law. The 'Jeffries' option only pays out if a challenger qualifies for the ballot AND Jeffries wins; current pricing (93c) ignores the high probability (>70%) of the primary being canceled entirely.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
This market presents a severe 'rule trap' (Score 5). The rules explicitly state that if no primary takes place, the market resolves to 'Other.' In New York, if the incumbent (Hakeem Jeffries) successfully challenges his opponents' ballot petitions (a common tactic) and runs unopposed, the primary is legally **canceled**. In this scenario, even though Jeffries effectively wins the nomination, the market resolves to 'Other' based on the technicality of the event not occurring. Bettors holding 'Jeffries' would lose their stake despite him being the nominee. Given that Jeffries' primaries were canceled in both 2020 and 2024, this is a critical structural risk.
Divergence
Significant divergence. The political consensus is that Hakeem Jeffries is a lock for re-election (~100% chance), explaining the 93c market price. However, the market rule states 'resolves to Other if no primary takes place.' In reality, NY election law cancels uncontested primaries. Thus, Jeffries' political dominance paradoxically makes it highly probable this specific contract resolves to 'No' ($0). The market is pricing the political outcome, not the technical contract outcome.
