o1 FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto|$73.9k Vol|
time608 days 5 hrs

o1 FDV above ___ one day after launch? - AI Found +31¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 10:56
Top Undervalued
+31¢
$500M(No)
+13.5¢
$300M(No)
+12¢
$200M(Yes)

o1 FDV above ___ one day after launch? AI analysis: • +31¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Fair value must strictly follow a monotonically decreasing curve, as the probability of hitting a hi...
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Highest temperature in Seoul on May 3?
Weather|$108.7k Vol|
time12 hrs 55 mins

Highest temperature in Seoul on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+3.6¢
17°C(Yes)
+1.5¢
14°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
It is already the morning of May 3 in Seoul (Incheon Intl Airport), and current conditions involve r...
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Rule Risk
The market title asks for 'Seoul', but the rules explicitly state that resolution relies on the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI)'. The airport is coastal and can have a significant temperature difference from downtown Seoul, posing a severe geographic trap for unwary traders. Additionally, it strictly relies on unrevised integer data from Wunderground.
Movers
May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 15°C option surged from 25.5c to 41.5c, and the 14°C option rose from 14.5c to 21.5c. This occurred because as the expiration date approached, updated weather forecasts strongly confirmed rainy conditions, concentrating the predicted temperature in the 14-16°C range. April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026: No price movement exceeding 10 cents was observed, indicating that the market pricing for all options remained relatively stable.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 3?
Weather|$13.6k Vol|
time12 hrs 55 mins

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+19¢
17°C(Yes)
+15¢
18°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature for Buenos Aires Ezeiza airport on M...
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Exotics
Predicting the exact highest temperature in a specific city on a given day to a precise whole degree is a relatively niche betting topic. While weather markets exist, it is not a mainstream event that the general public quantifies and closely monitors daily.
Divergence
Mainstream weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature on May 3 will most likely be around 17°C, yet the market currently assigns the highest probability to 18°C (priced at 34.5c). This slight divergence may stem from traders relying on specific meteorological models that predict slight warming, or hedging against occasional unseasonable heat during the Argentine autumn.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 3?
Weather|$17.7k Vol|
time12 hrs 55 mins

Highest temperature in Seattle on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+37¢
80°F or higher(No)
+13.5¢
76-77°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in Seattle (KSEA) on May 3, 2026, is exp...
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Exotics
Predicting the exact high temperature on a specific day in a specific city is somewhat niche and not something the general public actively thinks about, though it is a relatively common topic in prediction markets or weather derivatives.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
$500M
YesNo
46¢
54¢
15¢
85¢
+31¢
$300M
YesNo
48.5¢
51.5¢
35¢
65¢
+13.5¢

Expand to view all 7 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
This is a market cap prediction for a specific, yet-to-launch cryptocurrency project. While standard for crypto insiders, o1 exchange is not a household name, and predicting the FDV of a non-existent token adds a speculative and niche element, making it moderately exotic to the general public.
Movers
2026-04-27 to 2026-04-30: Due to a lack of depth and liquidity, almost all mid-to-high valuation options ($200M to $1B) experienced severe volatility and frequent logical inversions. For instance, the $300M Yes price spiked from 10.5c to 49c, surpassing the $200M option, as the market was impacted by isolated speculative large orders that distorted the pricing system. 2026-04-06 to 2026-04-09: The Yes price for the $1B option corrected sharply from 11.65c to 3.1c, as the price bubble caused by thin liquidity during the previous irrational spike burst, prompting the market to fix severe logical inversions and revert to fair value. 2026-03-30 to 2026-04-02: The Yes price for the $1B option spiked abnormally from 1.9c to 13.9c. This was likely driven by isolated large market buys puncturing thin liquidity, creating a severe logical inversion in pricing. 2026-03-27 to 2026-04-02: The Yes price for the $100M option slid steadily from 70c to 59.5c, reflecting a continued cooling of market confidence in the baseline valuation threshold and a reversion toward rational expectations.

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