Politics|$19.2k Vol|
76 days 6 hrs# of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
8-9
YesNo
6-7
YesNo
2-3
YesNo
4-5
YesNo
10+
YesNo
0-1
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 06:29 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Market expectations have shifted drastically, establishing '10+' as the dominant outcome (surging from 25% to 68%). This strongly implies that the confirmed number of seats contested in the June by-elections has significantly increased (likely exceeding 12-14 seats). Given the Democratic Party's (DP) overwhelming polling advantage (high approval for Lee Jae-myung vs. low approval for the ruling PPP), if the baseline of vacancies is high enough, the probability of the DP winning 10+ seats is substantial. The previous forecast favoring '8-9' seats was likely based on a smaller number of vacancies and is now obsolete. Current prices fairly reflect the dual expectation of a 'Blue Wave' combined with a 'large-scale by-election'.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
There is a significant 'denominator uncertainty' risk. While the resolution rule is clear (counting all by-election seats on June 3), currently only 'at least four' are confirmed. The total number of contested seats could increase due to court rulings or resignations before the deadline. Since the options are absolute numbers (e.g., 10+), if the final total of contested seats is lower than an option's threshold, that outcome becomes impossible. This variability heavily impacts the probability of each bracket.
Exotics
This is a mid-niche market focused on South Korean domestic politics. While standard for observers of Asian geopolitics or the Korean market, it requires specific regional knowledge (e.g., Korean party structures, by-election dynamics) that is typically outside the scope of general global prediction market participants.
Movers
From March 10, 2026, to March 13, 2026, the price of the '10+' option surged from 36.7c to 67.9c, while the '8-9' option plummeted from 49.6c to 24.0c. Reason: As the June local elections approach, confirmations of incumbent MPs resigning to run for local executive positions (Mayor/Governor) have likely increased the expected total number of by-election seats, shifting the probability of the DP winning 10+ seats from 'possible' to the 'baseline scenario'.
