All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
90M+
YesNo
60-70M
YesNo
50-60M
YesNo
70-80M
YesNo
40-50M
YesNo
80-90M
YesNo
<40M
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 23:42 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on 2025-2026 data, MrBeast's performance is incredibly strong. Statistics show his 2025 videos averaged 206 million views per upload (Source 1), with first-week views consistently exceeding 80 million (Source 2). The current market pricing is severely dislocated, assigning high probabilities to low view counts (40-60M) which are statistically unlikely. Fair value should be heavily weighted towards the 90M+ and 80-90M brackets.
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Exotics
MrBeast's video performance is a highly popular pop-culture topic with broad public interest, so it's not extremely obscure. However, betting on specific first-week view counts remains a niche 'novelty' market compared to traditional political or financial forecasting.
Divergence
Extreme divergence exists. Market prices imply an >80% probability that MrBeast's next video will receive only 40-60M views in the first week, which directly contradicts real-world data (averaging 80M+). Market participants (or the lack thereof) are failing to price in MrBeast's growth trajectory in 2025-2026.
