[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid/ask depth for top contenders like Ryan Walters and Gentner Drummond. Combine this with their current campaign status (e.g., have they officially declared?) to assess if the current odds reflect their true probability of winning the primary.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid/ask depth for top contenders like Ryan Walters and Gentner Drummond. Combine this with their current campaign status (e.g., have they officially declared?) to assess if the current odds reflect their true probability of winning the primary.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Breaking] Core News Sourcing: Search for the latest breaking news regarding the 'Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary 2026', specifically looking for any recent scandals or campaign announcements from Ryan Walters (State Superintendent) or Gentner Drummond (Attorney General) that could drive price volatility.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Breaking] Core News Sourcing: Search for the latest breaking news regarding the 'Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary 2026', specifically looking for any recent scandals or campaign announcements from Ryan Walters (State Superintendent) or Gentner Drummond (Attorney General) that could drive price volatility.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Key Players Mining: Search for Donald Trump's endorsement status for the 2026 Oklahoma Governor's race. As a GOP primary in a deep-red state, his endorsement is often decisive; confirm if he has picked a proxy or remains on the sidelines.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Key Players Mining: Search for Donald Trump's endorsement status for the 2026 Oklahoma Governor's race. As a GOP primary in a deep-red state, his endorsement is often decisive; confirm if he has picked a proxy or remains on the sidelines.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest polling data from authoritative local Oklahoma pollsters like SoonerPoll or Amber Integrated for the 2026 primary, and compare them with the current win probabilities on Polymarket for significant discrepancies.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest polling data from authoritative local Oklahoma pollsters like SoonerPoll or Amber Integrated for the 2026 primary, and compare them with the current win probabilities on Polymarket for significant discrepancies.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain the impact of the 'Run-off' rule on this market: If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote on June 16, the top two advance to an August run-off. Clarify if this means capital will remain locked until August for settlement.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain the impact of the 'Run-off' rule on this market: If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote on June 16, the top two advance to an August run-off. Clarify if this means capital will remain locked until August for settlement.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Search the Oklahoma State Election Board's official schedule to confirm the specific Candidate Filing Period dates for 2026 (usually in April) to determine if the current field of candidates is finalized.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Search the Oklahoma State Election Board's official schedule to confirm the specific Candidate Filing Period dates for 2026 (usually in April) to determine if the current field of candidates is finalized.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Google Trends Analysis: Compare the Google Search interest for 'Ryan Walters', 'Gentner Drummond', and 'Charles McCall' specifically within the 'Oklahoma' region to determine who currently holds the highest organic attention among voters.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Google Trends Analysis: Compare the Google Search interest for 'Ryan Walters', 'Gentner Drummond', and 'Charles McCall' specifically within the 'Oklahoma' region to determine who currently holds the highest organic attention among voters.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Niche Market] Legal/Reality Barriers: Search for discussions in the Oklahoma House regarding impeachment articles or legal lawsuits against Ryan Walters or other officials to analyze the possibility of non-election factors causing a candidate to drop out or be disqualified.

AI-powered analysis for: [Niche Market] Legal/Reality Barriers: Search for discussions in the Oklahoma House regarding impeachment articles or legal lawsuits against Ryan Walters or other officials to analyze the possibility of non-election factors causing a candidate to drop out or be disqualified.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Crypto] KOL Sentiment Analysis: Search Twitter/X for recent tweets from local Oklahoma political commentators (e.g., The Lost Ogle, KFOR reporters) to summarize the local GOP grassroots sentiment towards establishment vs. far-right candidates.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Crypto] KOL Sentiment Analysis: Search Twitter/X for recent tweets from local Oklahoma political commentators (e.g., The Lost Ogle, KFOR reporters) to summarize the local GOP grassroots sentiment towards establishment vs. far-right candidates.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search the Oklahoma Ethics Commission's campaign finance reports to see which candidate had the most 'Cash on Hand' at the end of 2025/early 2026 to fund an advertising blitz.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search the Oklahoma Ethics Commission's campaign finance reports to see which candidate had the most 'Cash on Hand' at the end of 2025/early 2026 to fund an advertising blitz.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the Oklahoma GOP schedule, predict if there are key endorsements (e.g., Governor Stitt's stance) or primary debate announcements within the next 48 hours to a week that could trigger volatility.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the Oklahoma GOP schedule, predict if there are key endorsements (e.g., Governor Stitt's stance) or primary debate announcements within the next 48 hours to a week that could trigger volatility.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Analyze if the market is underpricing 'dark horse' candidates (like Speaker Charles McCall). Considering the top two (e.g., Walters and Drummond) might damage each other with negative ads, is the risk-reward ratio for betting on a third-place contender favorable?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Analyze if the market is underpricing 'dark horse' candidates (like Speaker Charles McCall). Considering the top two (e.g., Walters and Drummond) might damage each other with negative ads, is the risk-reward ratio for betting on a third-place contender favorable?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Review the trajectory of the 2018 Oklahoma GOP Governor Primary (Kevin Stitt vs. Mick Cornett) to analyze if the historical pattern of an 'outsider' surging in the final stages applies to this election.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Review the trajectory of the 2018 Oklahoma GOP Governor Primary (Kevin Stitt vs. Mick Cornett) to analyze if the historical pattern of an 'outsider' surging in the final stages applies to this election.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Considering candidate filing is typically in April, analyze the profit potential and time decay advantage of holding a 'NO' position on a popular rumored candidate if they fail to file by the deadline.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Considering candidate filing is typically in April, analyze the profit potential and time decay advantage of holding a 'NO' position on a popular rumored candidate if they fail to file by the deadline.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate if the expected excess return (Alpha) of this market is attractive enough compared to the risk-free yield (e.g., 5% APY) in DeFi protocols, considering funds could be locked until June 16th or even the August run-off.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate if the expected excess return (Alpha) of this market is attractive enough compared to the risk-free yield (e.g., 5% APY) in DeFi protocols, considering funds could be locked until June 16th or even the August run-off.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Suggest a poll-based stop-loss trigger: for example, if a frontrunner's support in SoonerPoll drops by more than 5% in two consecutive polls, or if Trump endorses their opponent, should positions be closed immediately?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Suggest a poll-based stop-loss trigger: for example, if a frontrunner's support in SoonerPoll drops by more than 5% in two consecutive polls, or if Trump endorses their opponent, should positions be closed immediately?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Based on your confidence level in the solidity of Ryan Walters' base (e.g., assuming a 60% win rate), use the Kelly Criterion to suggest what percentage of your portfolio to allocate given the current odds.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Based on your confidence level in the solidity of Ryan Walters' base (e.g., assuming a 60% win rate), use the Kelly Criterion to suggest what percentage of your portfolio to allocate given the current odds.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Fair Value] Optimal Limit Order Placement: Given that liquidity may be lower than national elections, suggest a limit order price for buying 'Yes' on Ryan Walters based on the current bid-ask spread that ensures execution while gaining an edge over market orders.

AI-powered analysis for: [Fair Value] Optimal Limit Order Placement: Given that liquidity may be lower than national elections, suggest a limit order price for buying 'Yes' on Ryan Walters based on the current bid-ask spread that ensures execution while gaining an edge over market orders.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Correlated Combo Bets Discovery: Look for related prediction markets like 'Trump Endorsement' specific markets or related Oklahoma Senate seat markets to construct a portfolio strategy that hedges against the risk of a single candidate suddenly dropping out.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Correlated Combo Bets Discovery: Look for related prediction markets like 'Trump Endorsement' specific markets or related Oklahoma Senate seat markets to construct a portfolio strategy that hedges against the risk of a single candidate suddenly dropping out.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation: List 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or local news sources (e.g., The Oklahoman politics section) dedicated to tracking Oklahoma state politics to gain an information edge over general national media.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation: List 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or local news sources (e.g., The Oklahoman politics section) dedicated to tracking Oklahoma state politics to gain an information edge over general national media.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner

Politics|$255.8k Vol|

44 days 0 hrs

Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 16 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+3.5¢

Charles McCall(No)

+2.9¢

Leisa Mitchell Haynes(Yes)

+2.5¢

Genter Drummond(No)

Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner AI analysis: • +3.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Genter Drummond maintains his lead with prices stable around 50c, placing his fair value at roughly ...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Charles McCall

YesNo

13.5¢

86.5¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+3.5¢

Leisa Mitchell Haynes

YesNo

9.05¢

90.95¢

12¢

88¢

+2.9¢

0¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Mike Mazzei's price surged from 27.25c to 43.85c before dropping back to 28.4c, due to quick profit-taking following a short-term speculative influx lacking fundamental support. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Leisa Mitchell Haynes's price rose from 15.55c to 24.2c before falling to 8.2c, as the market rotated through second-tier candidates looking for dark horses, followed by cooling interest. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Matt Pinnell's price spiked from 3.45c to 16.95c and immediately crashed to 2.3c, driven by extreme short-term speculative buying that was quickly corrected. April 15, 2026 - April 17, 2026, Mike Mazzei's price surged from 30.75c to 51.45c before quickly falling back to 34.6c, due to short-term positive rumors sparking a capital influx that the market rapidly digested. April 15, 2026 - April 17, 2026, Genter Drummond's price dropped from 37.5c to 32c before rebounding to 45.5c, as his campaign re-established market dominance after a brief outflow. April 14, 2026 - April 17, 2026, Chip Keating's price rose from 9.45c to 17.25c before crashing to 6.45c, likely driven by quick speculative trading without fundamental backing. March 31, 2026 - April 3, 2026, Genter Drummond's price surged from 34.5c to 43.5c, as his campaign regained attention and market confidence recovered. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, Mike Mazzei's price surged from 24.15c to 32.25c, likely due to positive reception of recent events or statements, attracting more bets on his victory. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, Chip Keating's price surged from 7.1c to 18.7c, as market funds re-evaluated second-tier candidates, with some capital flowing from McCall to Keating. March 17, 2026 - March 19, 2026, Mike Mazzei's price doubled from 3.2c to 7.1c, while Chip Keating experienced volatility again. The reason is the market searching for potential dark horses outside of Drummond and McCall, leading to rapid capital rotation among low-priced options. March 8, 2026 - March 11, 2026, Chip Keating's price experienced a violent 'roller coaster', surging to a peak of 20.1c before crashing back to 9.25c within two days. The reason was a renewed bet on MAGA consolidation that heated up and then cooled down rapidly. March 5, 2026 - March 6, 2026, Chip Keating's price spiked from ~3.45c to 15.25c within hours, before settling back to 10.9c. The reason was a sudden surge of speculative buying. Feb 12, 2026 - Feb 18, 2026, Chip Keating's price doubled from 7.5c to 16.6c, establishing him as a top-tier contender.