Between May 21, 2026 and May 22, 2026, prices for '60-61°F' and '58-59°F' plummeted from over 20c to under 3c as forecasts confirmed significant rain and cooling for the 24th. Between May 21, 2026 and May 22, 2026, the price of '54-55°F' surged from 11.5c to 30c as weather models aligned, pinpointing the low temperature to this range. On May 20, 2026, the price of '43°F or below' crashed from 47.5c to 0.7c after early extreme cold-wave predictions were completely retracted by updated models. Between May 20, 2026 and May 21, 2026, the price of '62°F or higher' plummeted from 47.5c to 20.5c (previous movement) as extreme higher minimums became unlikely.

Between May 22 and May 23, 2026, the price for 84-85°F dropped from 21.5c to 14.5c, while the price for 80-81°F increased from 22.5c to 29.5c. This occurred because, as the date approached, weather forecast models converged further, slightly adjusting the expected high temperature to a lower range.

There is a significant 'Uncontested Trap'. The rules state 'If no... Primary takes place... resolve to Other'. In many jurisdictions, if a candidate runs unopposed, the primary election is cancelled and they are nominated by acclamation. In this scenario, bets on a specific named candidate would settle as Loss (and 'Other' as Win), even if that candidate effectively became the nominee, because the physical primary event did not occur.

Predicting a single day's high temperature for a specific city falls under niche weather markets. While not a mainstream political or financial event that the general public follows daily, it is a common and standard topic within prediction markets and weather derivatives.

May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026, the price of 90-91°F surged from 16c to 32.5c, as short-term weather forecasting models slightly upgraded the expected high temperature for May 24. No recent price movements exceeding 10c have been recorded prior to this.