Critical Risk. There is a fatal date discrepancy: the Title states 'by June 30', but the Rules text explicitly specifies 'by February 28, 2026'. In prediction markets, the specific text in the Rules usually overrides the Title. This implies the effective deadline is in just 18 days, not 4 months. Furthermore, the reliance on Epoch AI as the resolution source poses a lag risk; if Epoch does not update the leaderboard immediately for the recently released GPT-5.3-Codex (Feb 5), the market could resolve 'No' despite model capabilities.

Moderately Exotic. FrontierMath is a highly specialized, 'research-level' mathematics benchmark containing unpublished problems. While OpenAI models are mainstream, betting on specific percentage thresholds for this niche, high-difficulty benchmark is a topic for deep-tech industry watchers, not the general public.

If OpenAI scores break 50% or 70% (current GPT-5.2 is ~40.3%), it validates that Scaling Laws are still effective for extreme reasoning tasks, bullish for MSFT (OpenAI backer) and NVDA (compute demand). Conversely, stalling at ~40% implies a reasoning ceiling. Since the baseline is already 40.3%, a jump to 45%+ is a credible signal for continued AI progress, carrying medium-impact price implications for AI-linked equities.

2026-04-30 - 2026-05-01, the Yes price of the 60%+ option plummeted from 44c to 28.5c, as speculative sentiment rapidly faded with market participants further confirming that the hard deadline (Feb 28) had passed without a passing score. 2026-04-12 - 2026-04-15, the Yes price of the 60%+ option rebounded from 51c to 63c, likely because some traders bet on delayed updates to the EpochAI leaderboard containing undisclosed tests prior to the deadline, reigniting speculation. 2026-04-11 - 2026-04-12, the Yes price of the 60%+ option plummeted from 67c to 51c, as more market participants realized the deadline had passed and existing public data did not support success, triggering long liquidations. 2026-03-30 - 2026-04-01, the price of the 60%+ option plummeted from 56.5c to 41c, as market participants gradually realized the hard deadline of February 28 had passed without success, causing the speculative bubble to deflate. 2026-03-14 - 2026-03-15, the price of the 60%+ option surged from 43.5c to 56c. The reason was likely market overreaction to the release of new OpenAI models, mistakenly assuming the release implied benchmark success, despite the simultaneous data showing a score of 47.6% (a failure).

Yes. The hard deadline (February 28, 2026) has already passed in reality, and OpenAI's highest score was only 47.6%, making it impossible to trigger the Yes condition according to the rules. However, the market is still pricing the Yes option for 60%+ at 28.5c, reflecting highly irrational speculation and mispricing.