[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam' event to analyze the Order Book depth and user discussions for the '50%+' and '40%+' buckets, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks regarding the June 30 deadline.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam' event to analyze the Order Book depth and user discussions for the '50%+' and '40%+' buckets, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks regarding the June 30 deadline.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing: Search Google News and Twitter to find if there are reliable leaks or official teasers regarding the release of 'GPT-5', 'Project Orion', or the full version of 'O3' by June 30, 2026, which would be the direct source for a score surge.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing: Search Google News and Twitter to find if there are reliable leaks or official teasers regarding the release of 'GPT-5', 'Project Orion', or the full version of 'O3' by June 30, 2026, which would be the direct source for a score surge.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Search OpenAI's official roadmap or recent interviews with Sam Altman to verify if there are plans for a DevDay or launch event in Q2 2026, confirming the reasonableness of a new model release before the June 30 deadline.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Search OpenAI's official roadmap or recent interviews with Sam Altman to verify if there are plans for a DevDay or launch event in Q2 2026, confirming the reasonableness of a new model release before the June 30 deadline.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain the resolution criteria for 'Humanity’s Last Exam' in the simplest terms: Does the model need to be publicly available, or does a verified submission by OpenAI on the Scale AI leaderboard count? Do fine-tuned versions count as an 'OpenAI GPT model'?

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain the resolution criteria for 'Humanity’s Last Exam' in the simplest terms: Does the model need to be publicly available, or does a verified submission by OpenAI on the Scale AI leaderboard count? Do fine-tuned versions count as an 'OpenAI GPT model'?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the official Scale AI leaderboard to calculate the growth rate of SOTA scores over the past year. How many percentage points does the score need to improve from the current best to hit 50%?

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search the official Scale AI leaderboard to calculate the growth rate of SOTA scores over the past year. How many percentage points does the score need to improve from the current best to hit 50%?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Data Source Reliability Check: Verify the update frequency of the official Scale AI leaderboard. If OpenAI releases a model on June 29, is the leaderboard guaranteed to update before the June 30, 11:59 PM ET deadline?

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Data Source Reliability Check: Verify the update frequency of the official Scale AI leaderboard. If OpenAI releases a model on June 29, is the leaderboard guaranteed to update before the June 30, 11:59 PM ET deadline?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Deliberately search for arguments on 'why LLMs cannot solve Humanity’s Last Exam in the short term', listing the Top 3 bearish arguments (e.g., HLE focuses on abstract reasoning vs. knowledge retrieval, bottlenecks in current Transformer architecture).

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Deliberately search for arguments on 'why LLMs cannot solve Humanity’s Last Exam in the short term', listing the Top 3 bearish arguments (e.g., HLE focuses on abstract reasoning vs. knowledge retrieval, bottlenecks in current Transformer architecture).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Key Players Mining: Search for recent tweets or comments from Scale AI founder Alexandr Wang or Dan Hendrycks regarding the difficulty of HLE and OpenAI's internal progress to find hints about the likelihood of a score breakthrough.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Key Players Mining: Search for recent tweets or comments from Scale AI founder Alexandr Wang or Dan Hendrycks regarding the difficulty of HLE and OpenAI's internal progress to find hints about the likelihood of a score breakthrough.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Analyze the time decay for the 'Yes' side of the '50%+' option given the June 30, 2026 deadline. Will the price drop exponentially if there is still no news of a new model by May 2026?

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Analyze the time decay for the 'Yes' side of the '50%+' option given the June 30, 2026 deadline. Will the price drop exponentially if there is still no news of a new model by May 2026?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on tech news projections, list potential catalysts within the next 3 months that could cause volatility in HLE scores (e.g., GPT-4.5 release, O3 rollout to all users, OpenAI Summer Launch Event).

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on tech news projections, list potential catalysts within the next 3 months that could cause volatility in HLE scores (e.g., GPT-4.5 release, O3 rollout to all users, OpenAI Summer Launch Event).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal Comparison: Search for the history of score jumps from GPT-3 to GPT-4 on the MMLU benchmark and compare it to the HLE difficulty curve. Does a jump to 50%+ match historical 'step-function' improvement patterns?

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal Comparison: Search for the history of score jumps from GPT-3 to GPT-4 on the MMLU benchmark and compare it to the HLE difficulty curve. Does a jump to 50%+ match historical 'step-function' improvement patterns?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Community Disagreement Summary: Extract discussions from the Polymarket comments regarding the effectiveness of 'Reasoning Models'. Does the market believe models like o1/o3 can 'brute force' HLE by increasing test-time compute?

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Community Disagreement Summary: Extract discussions from the Polymarket comments regarding the effectiveness of 'Reasoning Models'. Does the market believe models like o1/o3 can 'brute force' HLE by increasing test-time compute?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Determine whether buying 'Yes' on '50%+' at current odds is 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds) or 'buying a lottery ticket' (betting on an AGI breakthrough), and if the risk-reward profile is favorable.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Determine whether buying 'Yes' on '50%+' at current odds is 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds) or 'buying a lottery ticket' (betting on an AGI breakthrough), and if the risk-reward profile is favorable.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Correlated Hedging/Asset Decoupling: Analyze the correlation between this event and 'GPT-5 Release Date' prediction markets. If GPT-5 is delayed to H2 2026, does the probability of HLE scores hitting 50% immediately drop to near zero?

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Correlated Hedging/Asset Decoupling: Analyze the correlation between this event and 'GPT-5 Release Date' prediction markets. If GPT-5 is delayed to H2 2026, does the probability of HLE scores hitting 50% immediately drop to near zero?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search for public predictions by top AI researchers (e.g., Francois Chollet, Yann LeCun) on when HLE will be 'solved', using this as a sentiment indicator for 'smart money'.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis & Reasoning] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search for public predictions by top AI researchers (e.g., Francois Chollet, Yann LeCun) on when HLE will be 'solved', using this as a sentiment indicator for 'smart money'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Based on your confidence level (e.g., 20%) in OpenAI releasing a new frontier model in Q2, suggest a portfolio allocation percentage for the '50%+' option using the Kelly criterion.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Based on your confidence level (e.g., 20%) in OpenAI releasing a new frontier model in Q2, suggest a portfolio allocation percentage for the '50%+' option using the Kelly criterion.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Suggest a core fundamental indicator (e.g., no OpenAI launch event announcement by June 1, 2026) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate liquidation of 'Yes' positions.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Suggest a core fundamental indicator (e.g., no OpenAI launch event announcement by June 1, 2026) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate liquidation of 'Yes' positions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Rule Pitfall Risk Premium Assessment: Compare odds with similar events devoid of 'leaderboard update lag' risk to judge if the current price sufficiently discounts the risk of a model being released but not listed in time.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Rule Pitfall Risk Premium Assessment: Compare odds with similar events devoid of 'leaderboard update lag' risk to judge if the current price sufficiently discounts the risk of a model being released but not listed in time.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate if the excess return of locking capital in the 'No' side (assuming high odds) until June 30 is worth the risk of a 'midnight surprise release' compared to risk-free yields in DeFi protocols.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate if the excess return of locking capital in the 'No' side (assuming high odds) until June 30 is worth the risk of a 'midnight surprise release' compared to risk-free yields in DeFi protocols.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Micro-Capital 'Lottery Ticket' Play: For small-capital users, if the price of the '50%+' option is extremely low (e.g., under 5 cents), is it recommended to buy as a high-payout hedge against OpenAI suddenly revealing 'black swan' technology?

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Micro-Capital 'Lottery Ticket' Play: For small-capital users, if the price of the '50%+' option is extremely low (e.g., under 5 cents), is it recommended to buy as a high-payout hedge against OpenAI suddenly revealing 'black swan' technology?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Tech|$30.1k Vol|

103 days 6 hrs

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

40%+

YesNo

59¢

41¢

85¢

15¢

+26¢

0¢

50%+

YesNo

18.5¢

81.5¢

22¢

78¢

+3.5¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.06 11:23 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Google Gemini 3 Pro scoring 38.3% has fundamentally shifted expectations. For OpenAI, clearing the 35% threshold (improving from ~29.9%) is now trivial, and the 40% threshold (requiring only a 1.7% lead over Gemini) is highly accessible. Given OpenAI's history of rivaling Google and the remaining 4-month window, the '40%+' option is extremely likely, justifying a significant FV hike to 85c. However, the '50%+' option demands a nearly 12% leap over the current SOTA. On a logarithmic difficulty curve like Humanity's Last Exam, this represents a generational capability gap. Despite recent market mania, the rational fair value remains low (22c) as achieving such a leap in 4 months is statistically improbable.

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Exotics

'Humanity's Last Exam' (HLE) is a relatively new and niche AI benchmark designed to measure AI on extremely hard tasks. While AI performance prediction is a hot topic, this is more specific and novel than predicting general benchmarks like GSM8K or MMLU, making it moderately exotic.

Movers

March 2, 2026 - March 4, 2026, the '50%+' option crashed from 67.5c to 21c. This move represents a severe 'return to reality.' The initial speculation driven by Gemini 3 Pro's high score—betting on an imminent OpenAI 'singularity'—collapsed as traders recalculated the exponential difficulty of bridging the gap from 38% to 50%, causing the price to revert to a rational range. Feb 21, 2026 - Feb 24, 2026, the '40%+' option saw a V-shaped recovery (64.5c->55c->64c). The market initially feared OpenAI was lagging after Gemini 3 Pro's release, but quickly realized that a competitor's high score validated the technical feasibility, thereby increasing the probability of OpenAI breaking 40%.

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30? - AI Odds Analysis

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