May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of the 27°C option surged from 35.5c to 64c before settling at 56c, as updated meteorological forecasts confirmed high temperatures around 27°C. May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the 26°C option dropped from 42.5c to 22.5c and rebounded to 32.5c, reflecting market vacillation between the 26°C and 27°C outcomes. May 3, 2026, the 28°C option plummeted from 34c to around 8c, as weather data indicated highs would fall short of the 28°C mark.

Predicting the daily temperature of a specific city is a typical weather prediction market. It is less mainstream than political elections or macroeconomic indicators but not extremely bizarre, having a certain niche audience.

May 2, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from around 19.5c to 38c, and the 21°C option rose from 22c to 33.5c, while the 20°C option plummeted from 24.5c to 11c. The reason is that as the date approached, updated weather forecast models revised the day's maximum temperature prediction upwards, causing funds to concentrate on higher temperature options (21°C and 22°C).

Between May 2, 2026, and May 4, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 21.5c to 46c, and the 29°C option surged from 17.5c to 38.5c. This was driven by real-time weather data and updated forecasts pointing to higher expected temperatures as the resolution date approaches. Between May 2, 2026, and May 4, 2026, the price of the 27°C option plummeted from 30.5c to 7.5c, and the 26°C option crashed from 21c to 0.5c, as the likelihood of lower temperature ranges was largely eliminated by the warming trend.

May 2, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the >55m option's price fell from a peak of 70.9c and fluctuated around 49.25c, while the 50-55m option retracted from a high of 84.5c to around 52c. This was due to initial weekend box office estimates placing the total gross right on the $55 million borderline, causing the market to reassess the odds between the two brackets. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the 50-55m option surged from 23.5c to a peak of 84.5c, while the 35-40m and 40-45m options plummeted to around 1c. This was driven by strong Friday box office estimates (around $14M), which caused market expectations for the second weekend gross to be significantly upgraded to over $50M.

While predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is standard in daily weather forecasts, using it as a trading instrument requiring precision to the exact degree remains somewhat novel and entertaining for the general public, fitting the profile of a long-tail prediction market.

From May 2 to May 4, 2026, the price of 34°C surged from 6.5c to 93.5c, while 33°C crashed from 26c to 0.05c. The reason is that as the target date arrived, the actual observed temperature hit 34°C, causing a decisive shift in market expectations.