Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics|$106.6k Vol|
time16 days 2 hrs

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner - AI Found +10.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.28 02:04
Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
Christine Drazan(No)
+5¢
Ed Diehl(Yes)
+4.6¢
Chris Dudley(Yes)

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner AI analysis: • +10.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
⚠️ CRITICAL RISK ALERT: Rules incorrectly cite 'Democratic Primary' while options are Republicans. I...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
netflix|$17.1k Vol|
time2 days 2 hrs

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Top Undervalued
+4.3¢
Apex(No)
+3.2¢
Swapped(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Netflix's weekly Top 10 list is based on total views from Monday to Sunday. For this tracking week (...
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Movers
Between April 29, 2026, and April 30, 2026, the price of 'Apex' surged from 50.5c to over 87c (peaking at 95.5c), as early streaming tracking data showed a massive lead in viewership for the week. Between April 29, 2026, and April 30, 2026, the price of 'Swapped' plummeted from 46c to under 10c (currently around 3.6c), likely because its premiere numbers or reception failed to meet expectations, leaving it unable to challenge 'Apex'. Between April 29, 2026, and April 30, 2026, the price of 'Bugonia' crashed from 24c to around 1c, along with similar drops for 'Miraculous World', 'Den of Thieves', 'Ari Shaffer: Jew', and others. This was driven by capital concentrating on the clear frontrunner 'Apex' as the week's data became clearer, eliminating the theoretical comeback chances for older or underperforming titles.
AI Analysis
Will gas hit __ by end of May?
Oil|$53.3k Vol|
time28 days 2 hrs

Will gas hit __ by end of May?

Top Undervalued
+46.5¢
↑ $4.45(No)
+39¢
↑ $4.50(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the implied probability distribution of the market, the likelihood of gas hitting $4.35 or ...
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Rule Risk
The rules explicitly state that prices are truncated to two decimal places (e.g., $3.257 is counted as $3.25) rather than using standard rounding. This deviates from common intuition and could lead careless traders to misjudge boundary prices, posing a moderate rule trap.
Hedging
Crude Oil
The national average gas price is highly positively correlated with Crude Oil. If gas prices hit the higher threshold options (e.g., $5.00), it typically reflects a substantial supply shock or demand surge in the oil market. Furthermore, sustained high gasoline prices elevate inflation expectations, which could exert upward pressure on the US 10-Year Treasury Yield.
AI Analysis
"Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office
Culture|$22.4k Vol|
time1 days 14 hrs

"Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Top Undervalued
+10.7¢
>55m(No)
+9¢
45-50m(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent box office data suggests that 'Michael' earned over $14M on its second Friday. Following stan...
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Movers
May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 50-55m option surged from 23.5c to a peak of 84.5c, while the 35-40m and 40-45m options plummeted to around 1c. This was driven by strong Friday box office estimates (around $14M), which caused market expectations for the second weekend gross to be significantly upgraded to over $50M.
AI Analysis
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
Politics|$133.4k Vol|
time28 days 2 hrs

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Top Undervalued
+29.4¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
US prosecutors formally indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya on drug trafficking charges in la...
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Movers
April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of the 'Yes' option saw significant movement. This was driven by the US Justice Department unsealing an indictment against Rubén Rocha Moya on April 29 for drug trafficking and weapons charges, alongside an extradition request, drastically increasing the risk of his removal or resignation [2, 3, 5, 7].
AI Analysis
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?
Crypto|$17.3k Vol|
time2 days 6 hrs

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?

Top Undervalued
+5.7¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
MicroStrategy just announced the purchase of 3,273 Bitcoin on April 27, 2026. Given the proximity to...
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Hedging
MSTR
An announcement of a Bitcoin purchase by MicroStrategy typically drives short-term volatility in its own stock (MSTR). Simultaneously, such announcements act as a positive sentiment catalyst, providing a mild to moderate boost to the price of Bitcoin.
Movers
April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 92.45c to 59.95c before rebounding above 83c. This was caused by some traders realizing the April 27 purchase announcement fell outside the target window, triggering a sell-off, though market confusion and speculative buying quickly pushed the price back up. Prior to April 27, 2026: The market did not experience moves greater than 10c as expectations of a purchase were steadily high, with volatility only spiking around the actual announcement and window start.
Divergence
The market price implies an 86% probability that MicroStrategy will announce a Bitcoin purchase between April 28 and May 4. However, mainstream media and facts show they already announced a purchase on April 27. The market is clearly confused about the date window, leading to a severe divergence from the actual fundamentals.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Christine Drazan
YesNo
82.5¢
17.5¢
72¢
28¢
+10.5¢
Ed Diehl
YesNo
93¢
12¢
88¢
+5¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
This is a critical rule failure. The market title specifies the 'Republican Primary Winner' and lists Republican-affiliated candidates (e.g., Christine Drazan), but the rule text explicitly states resolution will be based on the winner of the '**Democratic** Primary'. This complete mismatch between title/options and resolution criteria creates a fundamental contradiction, making the market impossible to resolve logically and highly prone to cancellation or dispute.
Movers
Apr 25, 2026 - Apr 27, 2026, Ed Diehl's price crashed from 22.5c to 12c, as market capital heavily sold off his shares ahead of the primary, reflecting a severe loss of confidence in his victory. Apr 16, 2026 - Apr 19, 2026, Ed Diehl's price surged from 32.5c to 47c, as market participants reassessed his campaign momentum ahead of the primary, allowing him to narrowly overtake Drazan. Apr 3, 2026 - Apr 6, 2026, Chris Dudley's price surged from 5c to 16.5c due to speculative buying amid rumors of him reconsidering a run or securing new backing. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026, Chris Dudley's price crashed from 28.5c to 11c as the market realized his lack of active campaigning, shifting funds to viable candidates. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026, Ed Diehl's price surged from 34.5c to 46c due to renewed campaign momentum and restored market confidence in his viability. Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, Ed Diehl's price crashed from 34.5c to 18.5c, likely due to collapsing confidence in his ability to challenge frontrunner Drazan as the primary approaches. Feb 25, 2026 - Feb 26, 2026, Ed Diehl's price previously crashed from 38c to 18c before a temporary recovery, indicating chronic liquidity issues. Feb 9, 2026 - Feb 10, 2026, Chael Sonnen's price dropped from 3.1c to 1.35c, reflecting market realization that the sports star was not running a viable campaign.

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