All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
David Brock Smith
YesNo
Jo Rae Perkins
YesNo
Joe Johnson
YesNo
David Burch
YesNo
Russell McAlmond
YesNo
Tim Skelton
YesNo
Douglas T. Muck Jr.
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 10:37 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With the March 10th filing deadline passed, the race has solidified into a two-way contest. While previous analysis noted Russell McAlmond's absence, he is now listed but remains overvalued at 13%. The real competition is between **Jo Rae Perkins** (the 2020 & 2022 nominee with high name ID and base/QAnon support) and **David Brock Smith** (a sitting State Senator and the only elected official in the race, representing the establishment lane). The market is highly inefficient, allocating ~27% implied probability to fringe candidates like Joe Johnson and Russell McAlmond, which is unrealistic against an incumbent State Senator and a two-time nominee. David Brock Smith is significantly undervalued at 22c given his credentials; his fair value should be closer to parity with Perkins.
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Rule Risk
The primary risk is resolution ambiguity due to an incomplete candidate list. Public records confirm Russell McAlmond has filed to run, yet he is missing from the explicit options (Tim Skelton, Douglas T. Muck Jr., Joe Johnson). If McAlmond wins, standard logic implies 'Other,' but the specific rule text only links 'Other' to the condition 'if no primary takes place,' failing to explicitly cover 'unlisted winner' scenarios. Furthermore, the filing deadline is March 10, meaning the field is not yet finalized.
Divergence
Significant structural divergence exists. While Jo Rae Perkins positioning as the favorite (60%) aligns with expectations, the market allocates >30% probability to the long tail of minor candidates (Johnson, McAlmond, Skelton), which is disconnected from political reality. Typically, the entry of a sitting State Senator (David Brock Smith) would consolidate the non-Perkins vote, yet Smith remains priced at a discount (22%) while fringe candidates maintain irrationally high valuations.
