The rules clearly define FDV calculation (Total Supply * Price) and timing (4 PM ET the day after launch). The main risk lies in the definition of 'Launch': 'actively, publicly transferable and tradable.' Ambiguity may arise regarding whether pre-market futures count or only formal DEX/CEX listings. Additionally, if no token is launched by the deadline (end of 2026), the market resolves to 'No', introducing significant time uncertainty risk.

2026-04-25 - 2026-04-26, the price of the $500M option surged from 12.5c to 27.5c, before falling back to 16.5c on Apr 27. The reason is the lack of market depth, where speculative buying by individual whales caused drastic price fluctuations, not only far exceeding historical averages but also reigniting pricing logic distortions with lower FDV options (e.g., $300M). 2026-03-29 - 2026-03-30, the Yes price of the $1B option surged from 4c to 30.95c, before falling back to 20.5c on Mar 31. The reason is extremely thin market liquidity, where an aggressive buy order from a large trader caused severe slippage and pricing distortion, pushing the $1B price far above the $500M and $700M options, violating probability logic. 2026-03-13 - 2026-03-14, the price of the $500M option crashed from 19c to 9c, before slightly recovering to 12c on Mar 16. This is likely due to the falsification of previous rumors regarding a late-Feb TGE/snapshot, or panic selling by large holders into thin liquidity, reverting prices toward 'no launch' expectations. 2026-02-24 - 2026-02-26, the $500M option surged from 18.5c to 39.5c, driven by a violent speculative reaction to potential airdrop snapshots or insider leaks.