All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Chris Rabb
YesNo
Ala Stanford
YesNo
David Oxman
YesNo
Morgan Cephas
YesNo
Sharif Street
YesNo
Gabriel Caceres
YesNo
Robin Toldens
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 16:46 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The PA-03 primary has evolved into a volatile three-way race. Ala Stanford has executed a stunning V-shaped recovery (rebounding from deep lows to currently lead the pack), validating the previous analysis that she was 'deeply oversold,' though her current price of 43c likely includes a momentum premium. The market is aggressively repricing the weight of retiring Rep. Dwight Evans' endorsement (Stanford) versus the Ward Leaders' endorsement (Street), with the former gaining traction. Sharif Street remains stagnant around 33c despite the 'Party Machine' backing, suggesting establishment votes are bleeding toward Stanford. Chris Rabb holds steady at ~32c, locking in the progressive base, but his ceiling is lowered by Stanford's resurgence. Fair value is adjusted to: Stanford 40c (Strong momentum but slight premium), Street 35c (Machine floor), Rabb 24c (Progressive ceiling).
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Movers
March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026: Ala Stanford's price surged from 32.35c to 43.65c (+11.3c). The reason is a drastic market correction where capital flooded back into the previously oversold Stanford, betting that incumbent Rep. Dwight Evans' endorsement is proving effective against the party machine, propelling her to the frontrunner status.
February 23, 2026 - February 26, 2026: Chris Rabb's price surged from 17.4c to 36c. The reason was a shift in race dynamics, with progressive and anti-establishment support consolidating rapidly around Rabb.
February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026: Ala Stanford's price crashed from 23.1c to 7.7c. The primary driver was the Philadelphia Democratic Ward Leaders officially endorsing Sharif Street, triggering the initial panic sell-off.
