All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Republican Party
YesNo
Democratic Party
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 16:20 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
PA-10 remains a structurally R+4 district with incumbent Scott Perry holding an advantage. While the 2026 midterm environment favors Democrats and challenger Stelson is strong, the Republican probability is severely undervalued by the market (currently only 22c). The recent crash in the Democratic price to 50.5c aligns closer to a 'Toss-up' reality. We maintain a slight Democratic edge (55%) but value the Republican chance at roughly 45%. The total market price (72.5c) indicates a severe mispricing.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
2026-03-07 - 2026-03-11, The Democratic Party price crashed from 73c to 50.5c, a drop of 22.5c. This sharp correction likely represents a reversal of previous over-optimism (77c) or a liquidity shock, bringing the pricing closer to the reality of a competitive district.
2026-02-09 - 2026-02-11, Prices remained relatively stable, with the Democratic Party fluctuating between 71c-72.5c and the Republican Party between 28.5c-32c. No movements exceeding 10 cents occurred, indicating the market sentiment favoring the Democrat had previously solidified.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political analysis typically rates PA-10 as a 'Toss-up' or 'Tilt Democrat', implying probabilities close to 50/50. However, the prediction market prices the Republican incumbent's chance at only 22%, which is wildly below the baseline win rate for incumbents supported by historical data. Furthermore, the sum of both prices is far below 100%, indicating a structural market failure.
