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Rachida Dati
YesNo
Emmanuel Grégoire
YesNo
Sarah Knafo
YesNo
David Belliard
YesNo
Thierry Mariani
YesNo
Sophia Chikirou
YesNo
Pierre-Yves Bournazel
YesNo
AI Insights:
13 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Emmanuel Grégoire's price retraced from the March 16 high of 93c to 87.5c, this appears to be a correction of post-Round 1 (March 15) euphoria rather than a deterioration of fundamentals. French municipal elections typically involve two rounds (if no one gets >50% in Round 1). Dati's rebound (6c -> 12.5c) indicates she successfully advanced to the Second Round (likely March 22), keeping a slim chance alive. However, Grégoire remains the overwhelming favorite; fair value is set at 90c, slightly above market price, to reflect his dominant position heading into the runoff.
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Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Emmanuel Grégoire's price corrected from 93c to 87.5c, while Rachida Dati rebounded from 6c to 12.5c. The reason is the market realization that the First Round did not produce an outright winner (>50%). While Grégoire leads, investors repriced the execution risk of the upcoming Second Round, moving from 'certainty' back to 'high probability'.
March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Emmanuel Grégoire's price surged from 70c to 93c, while Rachida Dati's price crashed from 28.5c to 6c. The reason was the release of Round 1 results on Sunday, March 15, where Grégoire secured a decisive lead, prompting the market to price out most uncertainty.
March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Emmanuel Grégoire's price dipped slightly from 73c to 70c, and Rachida Dati rebounded from 25.5c to 28.5c. The reason was pre-election positioning and profit-taking on the eve of the vote.
