All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Rachida Dati Win
YesNo
Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%
YesNo
Emmanuel Grégoire 10–15%
YesNo
Emmanuel Grégoire <5%
YesNo
Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20%
YesNo
Emmanuel Grégoire 20%+
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market has undergone a violent sentiment reversal in the past 48 hours. Although the official First Round results showed a 12.5% gap, the collapse of the '10–15%' bracket (falling from 46c to 3.5c) indicates the market no longer believes Grégoire can maintain the status quo lead. Capital is heavily flowing into a 'Narrow Victory' (<5%) or even an 'Upset' (Rachida Dati Win), likely because the negative impact of the left-wing vote split (Sophia Chikirou staying in) is being repriced, drastically shrinking Grégoire's expected margin. Fair value must reflect this tightening trend, making '<5%' the dominant probability.
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Rule Risk
There is a significant definition risk: 1. The Paris mayoral election is indirect (via arrondissement councils), creating a potential 'Electoral College' scenario where a candidate could win the Mayoralty but lose the popular vote. This market resolves strictly on 'citywide list votes' (popular vote). Thus, the option 'Rachida Dati Win' implies winning the popular vote, not necessarily the office, which is a trap for bettors focusing on the political outcome. 2. The rule mentioning a specific 'two-ballot system' could cause resolution ambiguity if the actual election proceeds under the traditional single-ballot aggregation method.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026: The price of 'Emmanuel Grégoire 10–15%' crashed from 46.5c to 3.5c, while 'Emmanuel Grégoire <5%' surged from 33.5c to 48c. This shift marks a fundamental change in runoff expectations, moving from a 'status quo 12.5% lead' to a 'razor-thin margin,' suggesting investors believe the left-wing split will severely erode Grégoire's lead.
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026: 'Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%' trended downward from ~24c, failing to capture the capital fleeing the 10-15% bracket, further confirming the market's belief that the margin of victory will nearly vanish.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Based on the official First Round tally (Grégoire leading by ~12.5%), the mathematical 'baseline scenario' should fall within the 10-15% bracket. However, prediction market pricing now completely rejects this baseline, assigning a near 50% probability to the '<5%' bracket. This implies the market is pricing in a 'momentum shift' (such as massive left-wing abstention or efficient right-wing consolidation) not yet reflected in the static vote count, making the market far more bearish than the raw data suggests.
