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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$600M
YesNo
$300M
YesNo
$500M
YesNo
$400M
YesNo
$200M
YesNo
$100M
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 17:38 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market exhibits a severe monotonicity violation. Theoretically, the probability of FDV > $600M must be strictly lower than FDV > $400M. However, currently, $600M (33.2c) and $500M (16.5c) are priced significantly higher than $400M (10c), which is mathematically impossible. This inversion indicates that high strike options are grossly overvalued or suffer from illiquidity. The fair value model extrapolates based on the relatively normal curve of $100M-$400M, estimating the true value of $600M to be extremely low (<5c).
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Divergence
Severe internal logical divergence exists. Market prices imply a probability of 'FDV > 600M' (33%) effectively higher than 'FDV > 400M' (10%). This not only contradicts common sense regarding Perena's valuation (early-stage project valuations typically follow a decreasing distribution) but also violates basic mathematical axioms. This is not a conflict between mainstream opinion and the market, but a breakdown of the market's internal pricing mechanism.
