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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
RP
YesNo
JP
YesNo
PP
YesNo
FP
YesNo
PL
YesNo
AvP
YesNo
APP
YesNo
AP
YesNo
SP
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 23:24 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current total implied probability is ~115%, indicating significant overpricing requiring normalization. Fuerza Popular (FP) has surged from 28c to 40c, showing strong momentum. As Peru's most organized party, FP typically outperforms in congressional elections compared to presidential ones, justifying the highest fair value (38c). Renovación Popular (RP) remains the main contender but lags in momentum (28c). APP and JP have seen their prices halve in the last week (APP 27c to 12c, JP 24c to 8c), reflecting a collapse in market confidence, leading to a sharp downgrade in their fair values.
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Hedging
EPU
Peru is a key global exporter of copper and minerals; election outcomes directly impact mining policy, taxation, and political stability. A victory by a radical left or anti-mining party could cause a medium impact on Peru-focused ETFs (e.g., iShares MSCI Peru ETF, ticker EPU) and major mining companies operating there (e.g., Southern Copper, ticker SCCO; Buenaventura, ticker BVN). While there is an indirect link to global copper prices, the impact is most direct on specific Peruvian assets.
