All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Carlos Álvarez
YesNo
Jorge Nieto
YesNo
Keiko Fujimori
YesNo
Rafael López Aliaga
YesNo
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
YesNo
José Luna
YesNo
José Williams
YesNo
Mario Vizcarra
YesNo
George Forsyth
YesNo
Vladimir Cerrón
YesNo
Yonhy Lescano
YesNo
César Acuña
YesNo
Ricardo Belmont
YesNo
Wolfgang Grozo
YesNo
Carlos Espá
YesNo
Alfonso López Chau
YesNo
Mesías Guevara
YesNo
Roberto Chiabra
YesNo
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
YesNo
Fiorella Molinelli
YesNo
Marisol Pérez Tello
YesNo
Enrique Valderrama
YesNo
Fernando Olivera
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 18:05 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Rafael López Aliaga (RLA) remains the frontrunner for the first round and holds a significant advantage in a runoff against Keiko Fujimori, justifying a fair value around 40c. The market's most significant mispricing continues to be Jorge Nieto; although his price has corrected to 12.25c, it remains heavily inflated (a bubble) compared to his actual polling numbers of 1%-2%. Alfonso López Chau is consolidating as the main center-left contender. Carlos Álvarez has corrected from his previous undervaluation (1.75c) to 4.2c, moving closer to a fair value consistent with his 5% polling. Keiko Fujimori has a high chance of making the runoff but a low chance of winning it, capping her upside.
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Hedging
EPU
SCCO
BVN
Peru is one of the world's largest copper producers, and its political stability directly impacts the operations and tax policies of major mining companies. A victory by a far-left or polarizing right-wing candidate (e.g., Keiko Fujimori or a radical leftist) could trigger concerns over mining concessions, taxes, or social conflicts, significantly impacting mining stocks with heavy exposure to Peru (e.g., Southern Copper - SCCO, Buenaventura - BVN) and the Peru ETF (EPU). While copper prices are driven more by global supply and demand, political turmoil in a key producer could cause localized supply shocks.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Jorge Nieto is trading at ~12.25c (implying ~12% probability), while recent credible polls (Datum, CPI) place his support between 0.7% and 2%. This indicates a disconnect between the prediction market and fundamental data, with pricing driven more by speculative narrative than actual voter sentiment.
