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Outcomes
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Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
AP
YesNo
RP
YesNo
AvP
YesNo
APP
YesNo
PL
YesNo
SP
YesNo
JP
YesNo
PP
YesNo
FP
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 22:50 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although the market has corrected from the extreme irrationality of 252% total probability down to ~131%, a significant premium remains. Renovación Popular (RP) has seen a massive surge (24c to 55c, then settling), reflecting consolidated betting, but 42.5c is too high for the fragmented Peruvian legislative landscape. Conversely, Fuerza Popular (FP) and Alianza para el Progreso (APP) possess the strongest regional machinery and 'voto duro' for congressional seats; FP crashing to 8.5c and APP to 9.5c represents severe market overselling (overcorrection). The fair value model weights organizational machinery heavily over presidential polls, placing FP and APP in the 15-20% range.
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Hedging
EPU
SCCO
Peru is the world's second-largest copper producer, making political stability crucial for mining output. If anti-mining or radical left-wing parties gain significant Senate seats, it could threaten mining concessions, directly impacting Southern Copper (SCCO) and the iShares MSCI Peru ETF (EPU). While there is a spillover effect on global Copper prices, the primary volatility will be concentrated in these regional assets.
Movers
March 11, 2026 - March 12, 2026, the market underwent a violent 'bubble burst' correction. Fuerza Popular (FP) crashed from 23c to 8.5c, APP plummeted from 22c to 9.5c, and AvP collapsed from ~35c to 1c. Conversely, Renovación Popular (RP) surged from 24c to 55c between March 8 and 11 (before settling at 42.5c). This indicates a massive capital rotation from a broad spread into a consolidated bet on RP.
February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026, AvP previously showed a slow decline (40.8c to 31.55c), which was an early sign of confidence erosion, whereas the March volatility represents a structural repricing of the entire market.
Divergence
The primary divergence lies in the extreme undervaluation of Fuerza Popular (FP). The market prices FP at only 8.5%, which disconnects from Peruvian political reality. While Keiko Fujimori is polarizing in presidential runs, FP as a party possesses the most solid legislative floor ('Voto Duro') and organizational discipline in the country. Conversely, the 42.5% probability assigned to RP implies a dominance that is statistically rare under Peru's fragmented D'Hondt system, reflecting the prediction market's over-reliance on recent 'momentum' while ignoring the critical role of party 'machinery' in congressional elections.
