The market heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker). Technical risks exist regarding how replies and deleted posts are counted, especially if the scraper experiences downtime or fails to capture a post deleted within 5 minutes, leading to discrepancies.

Predicting the exact number of social media posts a politician makes in a specific week is a highly niche, novelty-driven market. General audiences rarely think about or track this specific metric.

April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026: The 'Yes' prices for multiple outlier options (such as <20, 40-59, 140-159, 160-179, and 200+) plummeted from the 24-27c range down to under 5c. This occurred because the market corrected a previously massive overall probability premium, with arbitrageurs aggressively selling low-probability options to restore a rational distribution.

Betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is a typical daily novelty market on prediction platforms. While not a mainstream financial asset, it is common among prediction market users, giving it a moderate novelty score.

April 18, 2026 07:13 - April 18, 2026 08:18, the price of the 9°C option plummeted from 77c to 0.05c because the actual measured temperature in Moscow exceeded 9°C. April 18, 2026 06:08 - April 18, 2026 08:18, the price of the 10°C option surged from 9c to 74.5c due to updated real-time temperature data making 10°C the highly probable maximum temperature. April 18, 2026 06:08 - April 18, 2026 08:18, the price of the 11°C option surged from 1.15c to 26c as intraday temperatures continued to rise, driving expectations that it might hit 11°C. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 10°C option dropped from 32c to 16c due to downward revisions in weather forecast temperatures. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 7°C option rose from 4.5c to 16.5c due to downward revisions in weather forecast temperatures. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 12°C option dropped from 21c to 2.3c due to downward revisions in weather forecast temperatures. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 11°C option dropped from 19c to 7.5c due to downward revisions in weather forecast temperatures.

Predicting the daily highest temperature of a specific city is a relatively niche market that the general public rarely thinks about, although it is a standard and routine format within specialized weather prediction platforms.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the prices of the 35°C and 36°C options plummeted from 15.5c and 20c to below 1c and 3c, respectively, as approaching settlement day forecasts confirmed temperatures would be significantly higher than 36 degrees. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 40°C option dropped from 29c to 11.5c before oscillating around 14c, due to updated weather models largely ruling out extreme heat and pinpointing the peak in the 38-39°C range.

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific future day is quite niche and trivial. Outside of heavy prediction market users or weather derivatives traders, few people would naturally think about this.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 32°C option surged from 11.5c to 26c, while the 35°C or higher option plummeted from 26c to 11c. This was caused by short-term weather forecasts becoming clearer as the date approaches, effectively ruling out extreme high temperatures (35°C and above) and narrowing the expected range to 32°C-33°C.

Moderate rule trap exists. The title implies total tweets, but the rules explicitly exclude most replies—which typically make up a large portion of Musk's activity. Furthermore, resolution heavily relies on a bespoke Polymarket tracker (xtracker). Users checking raw tweet counts directly on X will severely misjudge the outcome.

Highly exotic. Predicting the exact number of posts by a public figure in a specific future week is a hyper-niche, entertainment-focused novelty market. The general public would almost never ponder this question naturally.