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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
6-7"
YesNo
7-8"
YesNo
4-5"
YesNo
5-6"
YesNo
>8"
YesNo
3-4"
YesNo
<3"
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 02:20 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 14, Seattle (Sea-Tac) has recorded estimated 1.5-1.8 inches of precipitation, anchored by a daily record of 1.15 inches on the 14th. NWS forecasts explicitly predict an Atmospheric River event from March 16-18 bringing 'several inches' of additional rain, with an active wet pattern continuing through late March. The combination of 'banked' rainfall and the high-confidence heavy rain forecast places the most likely total squarely in the 4-6 inch range. Fair value concentrates heavily on the 4-5" and 5-6" brackets (~78% combined). The market continues to overprice the extreme tail (>8"), which remains statistically improbable despite the wet forecast.
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Exotics
This is a typical weather derivative market. While somewhat niche for the general public (who care about *if* it rains, not exact inches), weather markets are a established but still specialized vertical in prediction markets. It is more purely statistical than political or sports markets.
Movers
March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, the price of the '6-7"' option surged from 1.8c to 10.6c, driven by a record-breaking daily rainfall event (1.15 inches) on March 14, which reversed the previous drier sentiment and brought higher totals back into play.
March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the price of the '6-7"' option plummeted from 12.75c to 1.8c, likely due to reports describing the March rains as 'fashionably late,' causing a temporary market overreaction against higher precipitation totals.
